000
AXPZ20 KNHC 151614
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC SAT NOV 15 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1515 UTC.                       

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETERS 
MISSED THE IMMEDIATE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AREA WHERE 30-35 KT N-
NE WINDS ARE LIKELY STILL OCCURRING. THESE PASSES DID HOWEVER 
SHOW A SWATH OF 20-25 KT WINDS EXTENDING WELL S-SW OF THE GULF 
AREA. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20-30 KT BY NOON TODAY 
AS THE PRES GRADIENT SLACKENS...THEN WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR 
LESS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. RESIDUAL SWELLS WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS 
THAN 8 FT BY 48 HOURS. THE MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL BE 
SHORT-LIVED AS YET ANOTHER GALE FORCE WIND EVENT IS POSSIBLE BY 
72 HOURS.

A DEEP LAYERED LOW PRES SYSTEM IS FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS TO 
DEVELOP JUST NW OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH AN 
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE FAR NW CORNER OF 
THE DISCUSSION AREA BY SUNDAY EVENING. GALE FORCE SW TO S WINDS 
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP E OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT SUNDAY N OF 
27.5N AND E OF THE FRONT TO 133W...AS WELL AS NW OF THE 
FRONT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH MON MORNING BEFORE LIFTING NE OUT 
OF THE AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS. SEAS ACROSS THE 
REGION WILL BUILD 8 TO 15 FT IN NW SWELL DURING THIS TIME. 
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N75W TO 10N86W TO 05.5N104W... 
WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING ON TO 10N114W TO 
08N130W TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N136.5W TO 07.5N140W. ISOLATED TO 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED FROM 03.5N TO 08.5N BETWEEN 
84W AND 93W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED 
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITCZ BETWEEN 127W AND 135W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 210 NM SE OF ITCZ W OF 
136.5W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1022 MB HIGH PRES IS LOCATED NEAR 34N126W WITH A WEAK RIDGE 
AXIS EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 20N108W AND ANOTHER SW TO NEAR 
25N140W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGING AND LOWER PRES 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MODERATE TO 
LOCALLY FRESH TRADES W OF 110W...EXCEPT ACROSS THE NE QUADRANTS 
OF 1009 MB LOW PRES NEAR 10N136.5W...WHERE RECENT SCATTEROMETER 
DATA SHOWED 20-25 KT WINDS. THIS LOW WILL MOVE W OF 140W AND 
WEAKEN TO AN OPEN TROUGH BY 36 HOURS.

MIXED LONG PERIOD SE AND NW SWELL CONTINUES TO SUPPORT   
COMBINED SEAS OF 8-11 FT BETWEEN A LINE FROM 30N115W TO 20N115W 
TO 00N125W AND ANOTHER LINE FROM 30N125W TO 15N140W BASED ON THE 
LATEST ALTIMETER DATA AND MODEL GUIDANCE. THESE SEAS WILL 
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY 36-48 HOURS.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT SUPPORTED BY RIDGING 
ALONG THE SPINE OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND WEAK AND BROAD LOW PRES 
EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH SW OF COSTA RICA IS RESULTING IN 
FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS IN AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR 
LESS BY THIS EVENING. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL BE WEAKER 
SUBSEQUENT NIGHTS AND EXPECTED WINDS WILL BE 20 KT OR LESS.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL SET UP ACROSS 
THE REGION BY SUN NIGHT WITH TROUGHING DEVELOPING JUST 
OFFSHORE/TO THE W OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE BAJA  
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...RIDGING EXTENDING TO THE S FROM THE U.S. 
GREAT BASIN TO ACROSS THE INTERIOR BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... 
AND ADDITIONAL TROUGHING ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE OF THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA. THIS PATTERN WILL INDUCE FRESH TO STRONG NW-N WINDS 
IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY SUN EVENING...SPREADING 
SOUTHWARD TO 27N SUN NIGHT WHILE BUILDING SEAS TO 8-9 FT BY LATE 
SUN NIGHT.
 
$$
STRIPLING