000 AXPZ20 KNHC 150923 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SAT NOV 15 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...THE MOST RECENT ASCAT AND ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER MISSED THE IMMEDIATE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AREA WHERE 30-40 KT N-NE WINDS ARE LIKELY STILL OCCURRING. THESE PASSES DID HOWEVER SHOW A SWATH OF 20-25 KT WINDS EXTENDING WELL S-SW OF THE GULF AREA. NO RECENT SHIP OR ALTIMETER PASSES HAVE COME IN DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS HOWEVER THE LATEST TAFB- NWPS MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES SEAS UP TO 16 FT. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20-30 KT BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRES GRADIENT SLACKENS...THEN WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY 24 HOURS. RESIDUAL SWELLS WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY 48 HOURS. THE MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS YET ANOTHER GALE FORCE WIND EVENT IS POSSIBLE BY 72 HOURS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N80W TO 05N103W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N103W TO 11N116W TO 09N125W TO LOW PRES NEAR 10N135W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM IN THE E QUADRANT OF THE LOW. ...DISCUSSION... A 1021 MB HIGH PRES IS LOCATED NEAR 31N127W WITH A WEAK RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 20N110W AND ANOTHER SW TO NEAR 25N140W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGING AND LOWER PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES W OF 110W...EXCEPT IN THE N AND NE QUADRANTS OF 1009 MB LOW PRES NEAR 10N135W WHERE RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED 20-25 KT WINDS. THIS LOW WILL MOVE W OF 140W BY 36 HOURS. MIXED LONG PERIOD SE AND NW SWELL CONTINUES TO SUPPORT COMBINED SEAS OF 8-11 FT BETWEEN A LINE FROM 30N115W TO 20N115W TO 00N125W AND ANOTHER LINE FROM 30N125W TO 15N140W BASED ON THE LATEST ALTIMETER DATA AND MODEL GUIDANCE. THESE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY 36-48 HOURS. A STATIONARY FRONT IS JUST NW OF 30N140W WITH ANOTHER SET OF NW SWELL W OF A LINE FROM 30N134W TO 24N140W WITH SEAS OF 8-11 FT. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE S-SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT THIS AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD OF IT IN THE NW CORNER. A DEEPENING LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL MOVE CLOSE TO THE WATERS REMAINING JUST TO THE N BY LATE SUN DRAGGING A TRAILING COLD FRONT TOWARD THE NW CORNER BY 48 HOURS. S-SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AT LEAST 20-30 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY 48 HOURS. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS RUN INDICATES WINDS UP TO 35 KT AT 10-M WHILE THE LATEST GEFS 34 KT WIND PROBABILITIES INDICATE A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF MINIMAL GALES. THE ECMWF AND UKMET KEEP WINDS AT 30 KT SO WILL NOT RAISE A GALE WARNING FOR NOW UNTIL THERE IS MORE AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT SUPPORTED BY RIDGING ALONG THE SPINE OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND WEAK AND BROAD LOW PRES EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH SW OF COSTA RICA IS RESULTING IN FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS IN AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THESE WINDS WILL BUILD SEAS TO UP TO 10 FT BY SUNRISE. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL BE WEAKER SUBSEQUENT NIGHTS AND WINDS WILL BE 20 KT OR LESS. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL SET UP ACROSS THE REGION BY SUN NIGHT WITH TROUGHING DEVELOPING JUST OFFSHORE/TO THE W OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...RIDGING EXTENDING TO THE S FROM THE U.S. GREAT BASIN TO ACROSS THE INTERIOR BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... AND ADDITIONAL TROUGHING ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THIS PATTERN WILL INDUCE FRESH TO STRONG NW-N WINDS IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY SUN EVENING...SPREADING SOUTHWARD TO 28N SUN NIGHT WHILE BUILDING SEAS TO 8-9 FT BY LATE SUN NIGHT. $$ LEWITSKY