000 AXPZ20 KNHC 150359 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SAT NOV 15 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING... GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND SLIGHTLY DOWNSTREAM FROM THERE. THE LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA...AT 14/1532 UTC...SHOW GALE-FORCE WINDS. A SHIP WITH THE CALL SIGN "VRED4" HAS BEEN SHOWING 30 KNOT WIND REPORTS AS LATE AS 15/0045 UTC. THE FORECAST FOR THE SEA HEIGHTS IS FROM 13 TO 16 FEET. THE GALE-FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING TO JUST LESS THAN GALE FORCE BY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TO 20 KNOTS OR LESS ON SATURDAY NIGHT...WHILE RESIDUAL NORTHEAST SWELLS PROPAGATE TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST WITH 8 TO 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS COVERING THE WATERS FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 102W AND 108W FOR THE 36-HOUR FORECAST. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 06N89W TO 5N98W TO 06N103W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N103W TO 11N117W TO 09N125W TO LOW PRES NEAR 10N135W 1009 MB TO 08N140W. NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 133W AND 134W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 07N TO 08N BETWEEN 135W AND 138W...FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 110W AND 114W...AND FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 115W AND 117W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 03N TO 10N BETWEEN 81W AND 96W. ...DISCUSSION... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N113W TO 26N117W TO 16N127W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 24N114W 17N116W 08N116W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY DRY AND STABLE AIR ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THE EXCEPTION IS THE BASE OF THE 24N114W 08N116W TROUGH...WITH CLOUDS AND CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 10N135W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 133W AND 134W. EXTENSIVE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE...IN THE FORM OF MOSTLY BROKEN CIRRUS CLOUDS...IS STREAMING EASTWARD...ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SECTION OF THE AREA. THIS MOISTURE IS AHEAD OF A LARGE TROUGH THAT IS WELL TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 22N NORTHWARD FROM 140W EASTWARD. A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 31N130W. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT EXISTS BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE 1020 MB HIGH CENTER WILL RESULT IN AN AREA OF MAINLY FRESH EASTERLY WINDS NEAR THE NORTHERN END OF THE TROUGH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WIND SPEEDS OF 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 10 FEET ARE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA...ROUGHLY FROM 20N NORTHWARD FROM 130W WESTWARD. SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW THAT WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS ON SUNDAY. THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN BY 12 HOURS INTO THE FORECAST PERIOD...BRINGING NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS. THE SEA HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE TO 10 FEET SIX HOURS LATER OR SO...WITH THE SAME 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS. THE 25 KNOT WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE A BIT AT 24 HOURS INTO THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT WITH 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS. SEA HEIGHTS OF 8 FEET WILL LINGER UNTIL 30 HOURS...LOWERING TO LESS THAN 8 FEET BY 42 HOURS. LOOKING AHEAD...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND LONG PERIOD SWELL FOR THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA...WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WATERS BEGINNING ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS JUST AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SEA HEIGHTS BUILDING TO 9 TO 14 FEET BY EARLY MONDAY. EXPECT INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS IN THE FAR NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA LATE ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FEET AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS THERE. $$ MT