000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140925
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC FRI NOV 14 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.                       

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS MOVED 
THROUGH THE SW GULF OF MEXICO N OF THE AREA WITH AN IMPRESSIVELY 
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SETTLING IN BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS 
INTERIOR EASTERN MEXICO. RECENT ASCAT AND ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER 
PASSES JUST CLIPPED THE EASTERN GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AREA 
INDICATING 30-40 KT WINDS. AN EARLIER ALTIMETER PASS SHOWED 8-11 
FT SEAS ALTHOUGH SEAS HAVE LIKELY CONTINUED TO BUILD UP TO 18 FT 
NOW WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST TAFB-NWPS MODEL OUTPUT FOR 
THE AREA. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24-30 
HOURS...THEN WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE EARLY SAT AFTERNOON. 
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS SAT NIGHT WHILE 
RESIDUAL NE SWELLS PROPAGATE SW-W WITH 8-9 FT SEAS COVERING THE 
WATERS FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN 100W AND 108W BY THEN.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 06N90W TO  
10N110W TO 08N120W TO 10N130W TO 06N138W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS 
FROM 06N138W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 
05N TO 08N BETWEEN 87W AND 93W.

...DISCUSSION...

A WEAK 1020 MB HIGH PRES AREA IS CENTERED NEAR 30N125W AND 
DOMINATES THE NW AND N CENTRAL WATERS. THIS HIGH IS FORECAST TO 
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A WEAK SURFACE 
TROUGH IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE 
HIGH AND EXTENDS FROM 23N124W TO 16N121W. SHORTWAVE IR SATELLITE 
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A WELL DEFINED SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS IN 
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROUGH. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE 
TROUGH AND THE HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL PRODUCE AN AREA OF MAINLY 
FRESH EASTERLY WINDS NEAR THE NORTHERN END OF THE TROUGH  
THROUGH TONIGHT.
 
LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WITH A LEADING EDGE OF WAVE PERIODS OF 19-
20 SECONDS CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST 
WATERS W OF 110W. SEAS OF 8-12 FT COVER THE WATERS W OF A LINE 
FROM 30N120W TO 20N117W TO 06N134W IN MIXED SE AND THE LONG 
PERIOD NW SWELL. THIS SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DECAY TO 8-9 FT INTO 
THE WEEKEND WITH A NEW REINFORCING SET OF NW SWELL ARRIVING IN 
THE NW CORNER BY 24 HOURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM 
WHICH WILL STALL OUT NEAR 30N140W.
 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE PRES GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE 
WESTERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE WEEKEND SUPPORTING NE WINDS OF 20-
25 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO COMMENCING EARLY SAT MORNING. 
THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO EXPAND W-SW FROM THE GULF TO NEAR 
90W-91W BY EARLY SAT AFTERNOON WITH SEAS UP TO 10 FT. THE WINDS 
WILL DIMINISH BY 48 HOURS AND RESULTANT SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 
LESS THAN 8 FT.

LOOKING AHEAD...A STRONG LOW PRES SYSTEM AND THE ASSOCIATED  
COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE 
NW WATERS BY SUN. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WINDS OF 20-30 KT JUST 
AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT WITH BUILDING SEAS OF 9-13 FT BY MON 
MORNING. IN ADDITION...EXPECT INCREASING WINDS OF 20-25 KT IN 
THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA LATE SUN INTO MON WHERE SEAS 
WILL BUILD TO 8 FT.
 
$$
LEWITSKY