000 AXPZ20 KNHC 140334 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC FRI NOV 14 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH EARLY SAT MORNING. STRONG COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM THE NE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE TONIGHT AND FRI. THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE A STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC... WHICH IS FORECAST TO RESULT IN WINDS REACHING GALE FORCE BY THIS EVENING. EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE 30-40 KT RANGE FUNNELING ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH BUILDING SEAS OF UP TO 14 FT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRI WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 12-16 FT...THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH FRI NIGHT. BY LATE SAT MORNING...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE AS THE STRONG HIGH PRES AND RELATED TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER SE MEXICO WEAKEN. SEAS IN THE GULF ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE TO 8-12 FT AT THAT TIME...HOWEVER DOWNSTREAM FROM THE GULF NE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 8-10 FT ELSEWHERE FROM 07N-13N BETWEEN 94W-105W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 06N95W TO 10N107W TO 08N115W TO 10N130W TO 07N135W. ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 07N135W TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 150 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 87W AND 91W...FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 108W AND 117W... WITHIN 90 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 120W AND 122W...NEAR 08N126W AND FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 130W AND 132W. ...DISCUSSION... A WEAK 1018 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 28N125W DOMINATES THE N WATERS. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH AND EXTENDS ALONG 122W FROM 17N- 21N. NIGHT CHANNEL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROUGH. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH WILL PRODUCE AN AREA OF MAINLY FRESH EASTERLY WINDS NEAR THE NORTHERN END OF THE TROUGH LATE FRI. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WITH A LEADING EDGE PERIOD OF 19-20 SECONDS CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST WATERS W OF 110W. SEAS OF 8-12 FT DOMINATE A LARGE AREA W OF A LINE FROM 30N120W TO 20N118W TO 8N130W 05N140W. EXPECT SEAS OF 8-10 FT AFFECTING MOST OF THE AREA W OF 115W BY SAT MORNING. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE PRES GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE WEEKEND SUPPORTING NE WINDS OF 20- 25 KT ACROSS THE GULF BEGINNING EARLY ON SAT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO EXPAND WSW FROM THE GULF TO NEAR 90W-91W BY SAT MORNING WITH SEAS TO AROUND 9 FT. LOOKING AHEAD...A STRONG LOW PRES SYSTEM AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE NW WATERS BY SUN. MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WINDS OF 20-30 KT AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT WITH RAISING SEAS OF 9-13 FT BY MON MORNING. IN ADDITION...EXPECT INCREASING WINDS OF 20-25 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...MAINLY N OF 27N...LATE SUN INTO MON WITH BUILDING SEAS OF 6-7 FT. $$ GR