000
AXPZ20 KNHC 132205
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC THU NOV 13 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.                       

...SPECIAL FEATURE... 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...STRONG HIGH PRES RIDGING 
SOUTHWARD BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO  
HAS TIGHTENED THE PRES GRADIENT OVER SE MEXICO AND THE ISTHMUS 
OF TEHUANTEPEC. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20-30 KT 
TO FUNNEL ACROSS THE GULF SINCE THIS MORNING. THESE STRONG 
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE TO GALE FORCE...IN THE 
RANGE OF 30-40 KT...LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT WITH 
RESULTANT SEAS BUILDING TO 9-14 FT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL 
CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRI WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 12-16 FT...THEN 
SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH FRI EVENING. BY LATE SAT MORNING...WINDS 
ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE AS THE STRONG HIGH 
PRES AND RELATED TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER SE MEXICO WEAKEN. SEAS 
IN THE GULF ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE TO THE RANGE OF 8-12 FT AT 
THAT TIME...HOWEVER DOWNSTREAM FROM THE GULF NE SWELLS ARE 
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 8-10 FT ELSEWHERE FROM 
07N-13N BETWEEN 94W-105W.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 06N97W TO 09N110W TO 
09N124W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 09N124W TO 10N130W TO 07N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 
108W AND 119W...FROM 07N TO 09N BETWEEN 124W AND 127W...AND FROM 
08N TO 10N BETWEEN 128W AND 132W. 

...DISCUSSION...

A WEAK 1022 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 28N125W DOMINATES THE N 
WATERS. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A COUPLE OF TROUGHS ARE NOTED MOVING WESTWARD 
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. ONE EXTENDS FROM 
17N107W TO 22N107W. THE OTHER IS ALONG 119W FROM 16N-22N. 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A WELL DEFINED SWIRL OF LOW 
CLOUDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SECOND TROUGH. PRES GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND HIGH PRES TO THE N WILL PRODUCE AN AREA 
OF FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY WINDS NEAR THE NORTHERN END 
OF THE TROUGH AT LEAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  
 
SEAS OF 10-14 FT IN NW SWELL ARE OCCURRING N OF 25N W OF 130W 
ASSOCIATED WITH A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST 
N OF AREA. SEAS OF 8-12 FT IN NW SWELLS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE W OF 
A LINE FROM 30N122W TO 20N125W TO 10N130W 07N140W. THIS SWELL 
EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS 
COVERING MOST OF THE AREA W OF 125W BY SAT. 
 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ENOUGH TO 
SUPPORT NE 20-25 KT WINDS BEGINNING EARLY ON FRI...AND PULSE 
SOME AS THEY CONTINUE INTO SAT AS THEY EXPAND WSW FROM THE GULF. 

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20-30 
KT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS N OF 29N LATE SUN WITH BUILDING SEAS 
TO 8 FT. 
 
$$
GR