000
AXPZ20 KNHC 130920
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC THU NOV 13 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.                       

...SPECIAL FEATURE... 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND A 
COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF MEXICO 
IS EXPECTED TO REACH SOUTHERN MEXICO THIS MORNING...TIGHTEN THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...AND INDUCE 
A SUDDEN INCREASE IN NORTHERLY WINDS SPILLING INTO THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC WITH WINDS REACHING 35-40 KT IN THE LATE MORNING OR 
EARLY AFTERNOON TODAY. GALE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE 
FRI NIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH FRI NIGHT AND 
SAT...BUT DOWNSTREAM NE SWELL ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SEAS TO 8 
FT AS FAR SW AS 08N105W SAT EVENING. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

A DISCONTINUOUS MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 08N94W TO 
10N103W...THEN RESUMES FROM 10N115W TO 10N132W TO 07N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 
85W AND 100W...AND BETWEEN 114W AND 132W. 

...DISCUSSION...  

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N133W TO 24N140W. LARGE NW 
SWELL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS ALLOWING SEAS TO BUILD TO 8-15 FT 
NW OF A LINE FROM 30N127W TO 14N140W. AFTER THE FRONT DISSIPATES 
AND THE AREA OF LARGE SWELL SPREADS SE AND SUBSIDES W OF A LINE 
FROM 30N122W TO 19N122W TO 07N140W THROUGH THU NIGHT...ANOTHER 
SURGE OF NW SWELL WILL REACH THE NW PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA 
FRI. NW SWELLS TO 8 FT ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE WATERS N OF 28N 
EARLY FRI...WITH A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT ALSO INCREASING THE 
NW WINDS TO 20-25 KT BRIEFLY ON FRI.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO....NE 10-15 KT WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL 
INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WINDS LATE THU NIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL 
FURTHER TIGHTEN WITH A SIGNIFICANT PAPAGAYO EVENT OCCURRING LATE 
FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING...WITH THE CONDITIONS SPREADING 
AS FAR W-SW AS 09N90W. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ON SAT NIGHT WITH 
ENE 15-20 KT CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE SAT NIGHT.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW WINDS AREA EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20-30 
KT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS N OF 29N SUN...THEN SPREAD TO AS FAR S 
AS 26N ON SUN NIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ON MON WITH THE NW 
FLOW DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT BY MON EVENING.
 
$$
MUNDELL