000 AXPZ20 KNHC 130323 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC THU NOV 13 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...THE NORTHERLY NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT LATE TONIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 30-40 KT GALE CONDITIONS LATE THU AFTERNOON WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 17 FT NEAR 14N95.5W AROUND SUNRISE ON FRI. THE GALE CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON...THE RESULTANT NE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SEAS TO 8 FT AS FAR SW AS 08N105W AROUND SUNSET ON SAT. ...TROPICAL LOWS... A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 20N107W AND IS ANALYZED AT 1011 MB. CYCLONIC 10-15 KT WINDS ARE OBSERVED WITHIN ABOUT 30 NM OF THE CENTER. CURRENTLY THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. THIS LOW SHOULD WEAKEN TO AN OPEN N TO S ORIENTATED TROUGH ON THU. A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW PREVIOUSLY EMBEDDED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 09N88W HAS LOST IDENTITY. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ORIGINATES OVER THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF COLOMBIA AT 11N75W...AND EXTENDS WSW ACROSS CENTRAL COSTA RICA TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA RICA AT 09N84W...THEN CONTINUES SW TO 09N88W THEN TURNS NW 07N97W. THE MONSOON TROUGH RESUMES NEAR 1N109W AND EXTENDS NW TO 12N116W AND CONTINUES SW TO 08N138W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ WHICH CONTINUES SW TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 05N79W TO 06N86W...THEN NARROWS TO WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A FROM 05N88W TO 07N99W...WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07N108W TO 09.5N114W...AND WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10N126W TO 07N133W TO 07N140W. ...DISCUSSION... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N130W TO 25N140W WITH 10-15 KT WINDS NOTED N OF 29N WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...COMBINED SEAS OF 8-15 FT PRIMARILY DUE TO NW SWELL...ARE OBSERVED NW OF A LINE FROM 32N126W TO 15N140W. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL FROM 32N131W TO 24N140W TONIGHT...THEN DRIFT NW ON THU AS A 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH REACHES NEAR 29.5N124.5W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO 24N140W. THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME E-SE AT 10-15 KT WITH 8-13 FT SEAS CONTINUING ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 32N123W TO 20N120W TO 07N140W. THE FRONTAL TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE ON FRI WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING TO 15-20 KT ACROSS THE NW WATERS BY LATE FRI...AND INCREASING TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 28N W OF 137W LATE SUN AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE NW WATERS ON SUN NIGHT. PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...NW SWELLS WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 8 FT ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE WATERS N OF 28N EARLY FRI...WITH GRADIENT ALSO INCREASING THE NW FLOW TO 20-25 KT BRIEFLY ON FRI. GULF OF PAPAGAYO....NE 10-15 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE AND SUPPORT NE 20-25 KT WINDS LATE THU NIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL FURTHER TIGHTEN WITH A SIGNIFICANT PAPAGAYO EVENT OCCURRING LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING...WITH THE CONDTIONS SPREADING AS FAR SW AS 09N90W. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ON SAT NIGHT WITH ENE 15-20 KT CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE SAT NIGHT. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW WINDS AREA EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20-30 KT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS N OF 29N ON SUN...THEN SPREAD TO AS FAR S AS 26N ON SUN NIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ON MON WITH THE NW FLOW DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT BY MON EVENING. $$ NELSON