000 AXPZ20 KNHC 122147 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC WED NOV 12 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...THE NORTHERLY NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT LATE TONIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 30-40 KT GALE CONDITIONS LATE THU AFTERNOON WITH SEAS BUILDING TO PERHAPS 16 FT NEAR 14N95.5W AROUND SUNRISE ON FRI. THE GALE CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON...THE RESULTANT NE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SEAS TO 8 FT AS FAR SW AS 09N102W AROUND SUNRISE ON SAT. ...TROPICAL LOWS... A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 19N107W AND IS ANALYZED AT 1010 MB. CYCLONIC 10-15 KT WINDS ARE OBSERVED WITHIN ABOUT 90 NM OF THE CENTER. CURRENTLY THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. THIS LOW SHOULD WEAKEN TO AN OPEN TROUGH ON THU. A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW IS EMBEDDED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 09N88W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OCCASIONALLY FLARING NEAR THE CENTER. GUIDANCE LOSES THIS LOW IN THE MONSOONAL FLOW ON THU. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ORIGINATES OVER THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF COLOMBIA AT 11N75W...AND EXTENDS WSW ACROSS SOUTHERN COSTA RICA TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA RICA AT 10N84W...THEN CONTINUES WSW THROUGH AN EMBEDDED 1010 MB LOW STATIONARY NEAR 09N88W... WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH CONTINUING W TO 09N99W. THE MONSOON TROUGH RESUMES NEAR 11N109W AND EXTENDS NW TO 12N114W THEN TURNS SW TO 08N130W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ WHICH CONTINUES SW TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 05.5N77W TO 05N84W...THEN NARROWS TO WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 06N84W TO 06N95W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 04.5N110W TO 10.5N110W...AND WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10N126W TO 07N140W. ...DISCUSSION... A BROAD FRONTAL TROUGH HAS STALLED FROM 32N131W TO 23N140W...AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY LOCALLY OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITHIN ABOUT 60 NM OF ITS AXIS. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS 32N131W TO 26N140W WITH 10-15 KT WINDS NOTED N OF 28N WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...COMBINED SEAS OF 8-16 FT PRIMARILY DUE TO NW SWELL...ARE OBSERVED NW OF A LINE FROM 32N127W TO 17N140W. THE COLD FRONT WILL SOON MERGE WITH THE WEAKER TROUGH. THE MERGED BOUNDARY SHOULD STALL FROM 32N131W TO 24N140W TONIGHT...THEN DRIFT NW ON THU AS A 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH REACHES NEAR 29.5N124.5W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO 24N140W. THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME E-SE AT 10-15 KT WITH 8-13 FT SEAS CONTINUING ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 32N123W TO 20N120W TO 07N140W. THE FRONTAL TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE ON FRI WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING TO 15-20 KT ACROSS THE NW WATERS BY LATE FRI...AND INCREASING TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 28N W OF 137W LATE SUN AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE NW WATERS ON SUN NIGHT. PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...NW SWELLS WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 8 FT ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE WATERS N OF 28N EARLY FRI...WITH GRADIENT ALSO INCREASING THE NW FLOW TO 20-25 KT BRIEFLY ON FRI. GULF OF PAPAGAYO....NE 10-15 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE AND SUPPORT NE 20-25 KT WINDS LATE THU NIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL FURTHER TIGHTEN WITH A SIGNIFICANT PAPAGAYO EVENT OCCURRING LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING...WITH THE CONDTIONS SPREADING AS FAR SW AS 09N90W. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ON SAT NIGHT WITH ENE 15-20 KT CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE SAT NIGHT. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW WINDS AREA EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20-30 KT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS N OF 29N ON SUN...THEN SPREAD TO AS FAR S AS 26N ON SUN NIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ON MON WITH THE NW FLOW DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT BY MON EVENING. $$ NELSON