000
AXPZ20 KNHC 120958
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC WED NOV 12 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.                       

...SPECIAL FEATURE... 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...NORTHERLY NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE 
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT LATE TONIGHT THEN GRADUALLY 
INCREASE TO MINIMAL GALE WINDS BY THU EVENING. GALE CONDITIONS 
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SUNRISE FRI...WITH SEAS BUILDING 
TO 14 FT NEAR 14.5N95.5W. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH 
FRI AFTERNOON...BUT NE SWELLS GENERATED BY THIS HIGH WINDS EVENT 
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 8 FT SEAS NEAR 10N101W LATE FRI NIGHT. 
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

DISCONTINUOUS MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 08N95W TO 
09N100W...THEN RESUMES FROM 15N109W TO 10N125W. ITCZ EXTENDS 
FROM 10N125W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 110W AND 135W. 

...DISCUSSION...
  
WEAKENING 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 20N106W WITH 20-
25 KT E-SE WINDS WITHIN 90 NM OVER THE NE QUADRANT WITH 7-9 FT 
SEAS. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FLARING 
WITHIN 60 NM SE OF THE CENTER. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE E 
OF THE LOW AND CONTINUE TO DRIFT ONSHORE THIS MORNING. THE LOW 
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TO AN OPEN TROUGH THROUGH FRI.

A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N133W TO 24N140W. A 
COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. 
THE TWO BOUNDARIES WILL MERGE LATER TODAY THEN BECOME STATIONARY 
FROM 30N133W TO 24N140W. LARGE NW SWELL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS 
EXPECTED TO BUILD SEAS TO 8-15 FT NW OF A LINE FROM 30N127W TO 
14N140W TONIGHT. AFTER THIS AREA OF LARGE SWELL SPREADS SE AND 
SUBSIDES W OF A LINE FROM 30N122W TO 19N122W TO 07N140W THROUGH 
THU NIGHT...ANOTHER SURGE OF NW SWELL WILL REACH THE NW PORTION 
OF THE FORECAST AREA FRI. 8 FT NW SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA PENINSULA N OF 28N EARLY FRI.
 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO....NE 10-15 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS 
MORNING...AND AGAIN LATE WED NIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE 
TO SUPPORT NE 20-25 KT WINDS LATE THU NIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL 
TIGHTEN FRI NIGHT WITH A STRONG PAPAGAYO EVENT OCCURRING LATE 
FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING...AND THE AREA OF SIGNIFICANT 
MARINE CONDITIONS SPREADING SW TO AROUND 09N90W. 
 
$$
MUNDELL