000 AXPZ20 KNHC 120335 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC WED NOV 12 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0245 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...THE NORTHERLY NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT LATE WED NIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE TO MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS BY THU EVENING. THE GALE CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH SUNRISE ON FRI...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 14 FT NEAR 14.5N95.5W. ALTHOUGH THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON...THE RESULTANT NE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SEAS TO 8 FT AS FAR SW AS 10N101W AROUND SUNRISE ON SAT. ...TROPICAL LOW... A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 19N107.5W AND IS ANALYZED AT 1005 MB. SE-S 20-25 KT WINDS CONTINUE WITHIN 120 NM OVER THE E SEMICIRCLE WITH 6-9 FT SEAS. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FLARING WELL E OF THE CENTER WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 19N106W TO WELL INLAND MEXICO NEAR 21N105W. ALTHOUGH DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS UNLIKELY DUE TO STRONG UPPER SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO MOVE ONSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO NEAR 21.5N108W ON WED AND NEAR 22N108W ON THU WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO 15-20 KT WITHIN ABOUT 120 NM OF THE CENTER. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TO AN OPEN TROUGH BY LATE FRI. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ORIGINATES OVER THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF COLOMBIA AT 10N76W...AND EXTENDS WSW BETWEEN 09-11N AND ACROSS NORTHERN COSTA RICA TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA RICA AT 09N84W...THEN CONTINUES WSW THROUGH A NEWLY DEVELOPED EMBEDDED 1010 MB LOW NEAR 09N88W...WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH CONTINUING SW TO 07N102W THEN...TURNS ABRUPTLY NNW TO 12N105W WHERE IT LOSES IDENTITY. THE MONSOON TROUGH RESUMES NEAR 18N114W AND EXTENDS SW TO 10N123W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ WHICH CONTINUES SW TO BEYOND 07N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE AND STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 03N80W TO 09N90W...BUT IS CURRENTLY DECREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.5N104W TO 10N114W TO 07N140W. ...DISCUSSION... AN INITIAL COLD FRONT HAS STALLED FROM 32N131W TO 24N140W...AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY LOCALLY OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITHIN ABOUT 90 NM OF THE FRONT. A SECOND COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. SOUTHWESTERLY 10-20 KT WINDS AND SEAS OF 7-10 FT IN NW SWELL ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVED NW OF LINE FROM 32N131W TO 22N140W. THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MERGE WITH THE INITIAL BOUNDARY ON WED ALONG A LINE FROM 32N133W TO 27N136W THEN BECOMING STATIONARY TO 24N140W...WITH A SW-W-NW 10-15 KT WIND SHIFT ALONG THE COLD FRONT SEGMENT. SEAS OF 8-15 FT PRIMARILY DUE TO NW SWELL ARE EXPECTED WITHIN AREA BOUNDED BY A LINE FROM 32N140W TO 32N124W TO 10N140W TO 32N140W. EXPECTING THE FRONT TO WEAKEN TO A NORTHWESTWARD MOVING FRONTAL TROUGH FROM 32N126W TO 30N131W TO 27N140W ON THU WITH A 1018 MB SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPING AT 29N127W WITH A RIDGE SW TO 25N140W. THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME E-SE AT 10-15 KT WITH 8-12 FT SEAS CONTINUING WITHIN AREA BOUNDED BY A LINE FROM 32N140W TO 32N123W TO 10N140W TO 23N140W TO 32N140W ON THU. THE FRONTAL TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE ON FRI WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SW FROM 32N123W TO 25N150W. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT NW OF THE RIDGE EARLY FRI...AND INCREASE TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 28N W OF 137W BY LATE FRI AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT STRENGTHENS NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...NW SWELLS WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 8 FT ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...N OF 28N...EARLY FRI WITH GRADIENT ALSO INCREASING THE NW FLOW TO 20-25 KT. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE NORTHERLY NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT LATE WED NIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE TO MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS BY THU EVENING. THE GALE CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH SUNRISE ON FRI...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 14 FT NEAR 14.5N95.5W. ALTHOUGH THE NE WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON...THE NE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SEAS TO 8 FT AS FAR SW AS 10N101W AROUND SUNRISE ON SAT. GULF OF PAPAGAYO....NE 10-15 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND LATE WED NIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE AND SUPPORT NE 20- 25 KT WINDS LATE THU NIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL FURTHER TIGHTEN WITH A SIGNIFICANT PAPAGAYO EVENT OCCURRING LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING WITH THE CONDTIONS SPREADING AS FAR SW AS 09N90W. $$ NELSON