000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110955 RRA
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC TUE NOV 11 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.                       

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                       

A NEARLY STATIONARY 1005 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CENTERED NEAR 
20N110W. STRONG SW WINDS ALOFT IS SHEARING THE SYSTEM APART AND 
DISPLACING THE MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION UP TO 120 NM NE OF 
THE LOW CENTER. A WELL DEFINED EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CENTER IS 
EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AN ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS AT 
0500 UTC SHOWED 20 TO 30 KT WINDS IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF 
THE LOW. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE THIS SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP INTO 
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 24 HOURS...BUT ONLY IF THE VERTICAL 
SHEAR EASES UP. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY NNE AND 
WEAKEN TONIGHT AND WED.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A DISCONTINUOUS MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 07N98W TO 
10N105W...THEN CONTINUES FROM 12N117W TO 07N135W. ITCZ EXTENDS 
FROM 07N135W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 45 
NM OF AXIS W OF 123W.
        
...DISCUSSION...   

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO IS SHIFTING SLOWLY 
NE AND SE WINDS ACROSS THE SW GULF OF MEXICO ARE ALLOWING WINDS 
AND SEAS TO DIMINISH NEAR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AFTER GALE 
WINDS SUN NIGHT AND MON. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN 
MEXICO BEHIND THE NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO REACH THE SW GULF 
OF MEXICO THU WILL INDUCE ANOTHER HIGH WIND EVENT LATE THIS WEEK 
DOWNSTREAM FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THU AND FRI. 

A VIGOROUS DEEP LAYER CYCLONE NEAR 36N153W TRAILS AN ASSOCIATED 
WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA...EXTENDING 
FROM 30N136W TO 24N140W...WHICH WILL DRIFT SE TODAY THEN WEAKEN 
QUICKLY THROUGH WED. THIS SYSTEM AND TWO OTHER SIGNIFICANT LOW 
PRESSURE SYSTEMS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC WILL PRODUCE 
SEVERAL PULSES OF LARGE NW SWELL THE NEXT FEW DAYS THAT WILL 
EVENTUALLY IMPACT MOST OF THE AREA WATERS. LARGE NW SWELL WILL 
REACH NW PORTION OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND BUILD SEAS TO 8- 
15 FT NW OF LINE FROM 30N125W TO 13N140W BY WED EVENING.

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FAIRLY WEAK AT THIS TIME...AND LIGHT TO 
MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE FOUND S OF 20N W OF 122W. LIGHT W TO SW 
MONSOONAL FLOW DOMINATES THE TROPICS E OF 122W.

$$ 
MUNDELL