000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110347
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC TUE NOV 11 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC.                       

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                       

A COMPLEX 1005 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED NEAR 
19.5N110.5W MOVING NE AROUND 10 KT. STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR 
OF 30 TO 40 KT CONTINUES TO DISPLACE THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE 
DOWNWIND OR EAST SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING WITHIN 240 NM ACROSS THE NE AND 
270 NM SE QUADRANTS. THIS FEATURE IS EMBEDDED IN DEEP LAYERED SW 
WIND FLOW OCCURRING JUST AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD MOVING MIDDLE TO 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO 
MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH THE LOW PRESSURE 
CENTER AT THE SURFACE MOVING NE AND LIKELY INLAND WITHIN 48 
HOURS. ACTIVE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO THE N AND E OF THE 
LOW...ALONG WITH 20-30 KT WINDS OVERNIGHT THEN POSSIBLY 
DECREASING TO 20-25 KT ON TUE. THIS LOW HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF 
DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N77W TO 07N79W TO LOW PRES 
NEAR 09N89.5W 1009 MB TO 06N96W TO 11.5N107W...WHERE IT IS 
FRACTURED...THEN RESUMES FROM 15N112W TO 07N136W...WHERE IT 
TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ CONTINUING ON BEYOND 06.5N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH E 
OF 89W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED 
WITHIN 150 NM S OF AXIS FROM 112W TO 129W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 90 NM S OF TROUGH 
BETWEEN 129W AND 136W...AND WITHIN 60 NM N OF ITCZ W OF 136W.
        
...DISCUSSION...   

CONDITIONS ACROSS AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE 
GULF OF MEXICO IS SHIFTING SLOWLY NE AND WINDS ACROSS THE 
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ARE NOW SOUTHEASTERLY. WINDS AND 
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THERE OVERNIGHT. 
                                          
DEEP LAYERED TROUGHING DOMINATES MUCH OF THE NORTH CENTRAL AND 
NORTHEAST PACIFIC W OF 130W TONIGHT...WITH A VIGOROUS DEEP 
LAYERED CYCLONE SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR 39N144W AND AN 
ASSOCIATED 994 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 39N145W. AN ASSOCIATED 
WEAKENING COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA 
TONIGHT...EXTENDING FROM 30N136W TO 25N140W...WHICH WILL DRIFT 
FURTHER SE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN WEAKEN QUICKLY THROUGH 
WED. THIS SYSTEM AND TWO OTHER SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS 
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC WILL PRODUCE SEVERAL PULSES OF 
STRONG NW SWELL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS THAT WILL IMPACT MOST OF 
THE AREA WATERS. PRESENTLY THE FIRST PULSE HAS REACHED SOUTHERN 
CALIFORNIA AND THE N HALF OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TODAY...WITH SEAS 8 
TO 9 FT NW OF THE COLD FRONT. A SECOND PULSE OF STRONGER NW 
SWELL WILL REACH NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND 
EVENING AND RAISE SEAS 8 TO 15 FT NW OF LINE FROM 30N128.50W TO 
16N140W BY WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DUE TO THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DOMINATING THE NORTH 
CENTRAL PACIFIC TONIGHT...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DOMINATING THE 
NE PACIFIC AND N PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA OF RECENT WEEKS HAS 
WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY...WITH TRADEWINDS GENERALLY 10-15 KT S OF 
20N AND W OF 122W. LIGHT TO MODERATE MONSOONAL FLOW DOMINATES 
THE TROPICS E OF 122W...WITH A 1009 MB LOW ALONG THE MONSOON 
TROUGH LOCATED NEAR 09N89.5W...AND ASSOCIATED WINDS SURROUNDING 
THE LOW 20 KT OR LESS. THIS LOW WILL DRIFT W THEN BEGIN TO 
BECOME ELONGATED AND BE ABSORBED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH BY 
WED.  

$$ 
STRIPLING