000
AXPZ20 KNHC 102223
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC MON NOV 10 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC.                       

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                       

A 1005 MB LOW CENTER COULD BE SEEN IN VISIBLE SATELLITE PHOTOS 
THIS AFTERNOON NEAR 18.5N111W MOVING NE AROUND 8 KT. 30 TO 40 KT 
OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAD DISPLACED THE CONVECTION OCCURRING 
NEAR THE LOW OFF TOWARD THE NE...WITH THE LOW LEVEL CENTER 
CLEARLY EXPOSED AND MOVING ACROSS ISLA SOCORRO. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING WITHIN 270 NM ACROSS 
THE NE AND 240 NM S QUADRANTS. THIS FEATURE IS EMBEDDED IN DEEP 
LAYERED SW WIND FLOW OCCURRING JUST AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD MOVING 
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TROUGH WILL 
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH THE LOW 
PRESSURE CENTER AT THE SURFACE MOVING NE AND LIKELY INLAND 
WITHIN 36 TO 48 HOURS. ACTIVE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO THE N 
AND E OF THE LOW...ALONG WITH 20-30 KT WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN 
SEMICIRCLE DURING THIS TIME. THIS LOW HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF 
DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 08N78W TO LOW PRES NEAR 09N87W 1011 MB TO 
05N95W TO 10N110W...RESUMES FROM 11N117W TO 07N132W. ITCZ FROM 
07N132W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS FROM 117W TO 138W.
        
...DISCUSSION...   

GALE CONDITIONS ACROSS AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
HAVE ENDED THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF 
OF MEXICO IS SHIFTING SLOWLY NE AND WINDS ACROSS THE 
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ARE NOW SOUTHEASTERLY. 20-25 KT N TO 
NE CONTINUED DOWNSTREAM OF TEHUANTEPEC CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON 
WITH SEAS TO 9 FT...BUT WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OFF 
QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. 
                                          
DEEP LAYERED TROUGHING DOMINATES MUCH OF THE NORTH CENTRAL AND 
NORTHEAST PACIFIC W OF 130W THIS AFTERNOON...WITH VIGOROUS DEEP 
LAYERED CYCLONE SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR 37N144W AND AN 
ASSOCIATED 996 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 36N145W. THIS SYSTEM AND TOW 
OTHER SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL 
PACIFIC WILL PRODUCE SEVERAL PULSES OF STRONG NW SWELL OVER THE 
NEXT FEW DAYS THAT WILL IMPACT MOST OF THE AREA WATERS. 
PRESENTLY THE FIRST PULSE HAS REACHED SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND 
THE N HALF OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TODAY...WITH SEAS 8 TO 10 FT NW OF 
LINE FROM 30N136W TO 23N138.5W TO 17.5N140W. A SECOND PULSE OF 
STRONGER NW SWELL WILL REACH NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA TUESDAY 
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND RAISE SEAS 8 TO 15 FT NW OF LINE FROM 
30N128.50W TO 16N140W BY WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DUE TO THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DOMINATING THE NORTH 
CENTRAL PACIFIC TODAY...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DOMINATING THE 
NE PACIFIC AND N PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA OF RECENT WEEKS HAS 
WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY...WITH TRADEWINDS GENERALLY 10-15 KT S OF 
20N AND W OF 122W. LIGHT TO MODERATE MONSOONAL FLOW DOMINATES 
THE TROPICS E OF 122W...WITH A 1011 MB LOW ALONG THE MONSOON 
TROUGH LOCATED NEAR 09N89W...AND ASSOCIATED WINDS SURROUNDING 
THE LOW 20 KT OR LESS.  

$$ 
STRIPLING