000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100935
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC MON NOV 10 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.                       

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                       
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS 
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF 
SOUTHERN MEXICO IS INDUCING GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 
THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING 20 KNOTS OR LESS EARLY TUE MORNING. 
 
.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...         
DISCONTINUOUS MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N77W TO LOW PRES 
NEAR 09N87W 1008 MB TO 05N94W TO 11N108W...THEN FROM 11N117W TO 
08N132W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08N132W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM OF TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 81W AND 
88W...AND WITHIN 45 NM OF 10N108W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM E SEMICIRCLE OF LOW PRES NEAR 17N112W. 

...DISCUSSION...                                                

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 17N112W HAS INCREASED IN 
DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND SLIGHTLY BETTER CONVECTIVE 
CURVATURE. AN ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS AT 0425 UTC SHOWED 20 TO 
30 KT WINDS IN NE QUADRANT OF THE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA 
OF GREATEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND CONVECTION. SOME FURTHER 
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE TODAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES N THEN E-NE 
TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO N OF CABO CORRIENTES. CONDITIONS WILL 
BECOME UNFAVORABLE TONIGHT AS IT MOVES INTO AN AREA OF HIGH 
VERTICAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS.

LARGE NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT REACHING  
FAR NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SPREAD E-SE TO A LINE 
FROM 30N137W TO 22N140W TONIGHT...THEN ANOTHER SURGE OF LARGE 
LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL PUSH INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA 
TUE AND WED WITH SEA HEIGHTS BUILDING TO 12-13 FT IN NW CORNER.

$$
MUNDELL