000
AXPZ20 KNHC 092145
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC SUN NOV 09 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.                       

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                       
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN 
SOUTHERN MEXICO BEHIND A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO 
THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE SURFACE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
AND GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. GALE-FORCE WIND CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE 
FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS...DECREASING TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS ON MONDAY 
AFTERNOON...BECOMING 20 KNOTS OR LESS BY LATE MONDAY/EARLY 
TUESDAY.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 07N77W TO 09N85W...TO A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE 
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 08N87W...TO 05N96W...TO 12N112W...TO 
08N126W...TO 08N131W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 08N131W BEYOND 
08N140W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 09N TO 
12N BETWEEN 110W AND 114W...AND FROM 09N TO 11N BETWEEN 116W AND 
118W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 08N 
TO 15N BETWEEN 106W AND 118W...AND FROM 06N TO 11N BETWEEN 118W 
AND 130W. NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 07N TO 09N BETWEEN 86W AND 89W 
AROUND THE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 84W AND 88W. 
SCATTERED STRONG FROM 05N TO 06N BETWEEN 81W AND 82W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 05N TO 06N BETWEEN 78W AND 79W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE 
AREA. OTHERWISE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF 
THE DISCUSSION AREA EXTENDS FROM 32N133W TO AN ANTICYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 13N134W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH E OF 
THE RIDGE WITH AXIS FROM 32N121W TO 14N124W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS N OF 
15N W OF 120W AND N OF 20N BETWEEN 105W AND 120W. ANOTHER UPPER 
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 8N109W WITH 
RIDGE N INTO NW MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH 
THE ANTICYCLONE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION FROM FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN 
109W-121W

A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS TO THE NORTH OF THE MONSOON 
TROUGH NEAR 15N112W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO 
BECOME GRADUALLY MORE UNFAVORABLE FOR THE FORMATION OF A 
TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE LOW CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD 
SLOWLY...AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 15N TO 18N 
BETWEEN 109W AND 112W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 106W AND 110W...AND FROM 17N TO 21N 
BETWEEN 110W AND 115W. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE LOW MOVING 
NORTHEASTWARD...AND INTENSIFYING ON MONDAY NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP 
OF THE BAJA PENINSULA WITH WIND SPEEDS REACHING TO 25 TO 30 
KNOTS AND THE SEA HEIGHTS BUILDING TO 11 TO 12 FEET. 

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN 
ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA 
PENINSULA...TO 28N117W 24N120W 19N122W AND TO 12N122W. 
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE 25N112W 20N117W 
15N121W 9N130W...AND IN A LARGE PART OF THE AREA THAT COVERS 
FROM 10N TO 20N FROM 130W WESTWARD. THE TROUGH IS TO THE WEST OF 
THE AREA OF THE 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER.

THE SEA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 8 TO 10 FEET IN 
NORTHWESTERLY SWELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM 32137W TO 
27N140W THIS EVENING.

$$
MT