000
AXPZ20 KNHC 091523
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC SUN NOV 9 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.                       

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                       
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...STRONG HIGH PRES IN SOUTHERN 
MEXICO BEHIND A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO THE SW GULF OF 
MEXICO WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC INDUCING GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ANOTHER 24 
HOURS DECREASING TO 20 TO 30 KT EARLY MON...BECOMING 20 KT OR 
LESS BY LATE MON NIGHT.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 7N78W TO 8N85W TO 5N95W TO 12N115W TO 
10N132W. ITCZ FROM 10N132W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS FROM 77W-88W 
AND FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN 109W-121W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE 
AREA. OTHERWISE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF 
THE DISCUSSION AREA EXTENDS FROM 32N133W TO AN ANTICYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 13N134W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH E OF 
THE RIDGE WITH AXIS FROM 32N121W TO 14N124W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS N OF 
15N W OF 120W AND N OF 20N BETWEEN 105W AND 120W. ANOTHER UPPER 
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 8N109W WITH 
RIDGE N INTO NW MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH 
THE ANTICYCLONE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION FROM FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN 
109W-121W

A 1008 MB LOW N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 15N111W WILL DRIFT 
NORTHWARD TODAY AND MAY INTENSIFY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. 
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE LOW MOVING NE AND INTENSIFYING MON NEAR 
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA WITH WINDS TO 25-30 KT 
AND SEAS BUILDING TO 11-12 FT. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO 
BECOME UNFAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT MON AFTERNOON.

SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-10 FT IN NW SWELL NW OF A LINE FROM 32137W 
TO 27N140W THIS EVENING.

$$
DGS