000
AXPZ20 KNHC 090930
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC SUN NOV 9 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.                       

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                       
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...STRONG HIGH PRES IN SOUTHERN 
MEXICO BEHIND A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO THE SW GULF OF 
MEXICO WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF 
TEHUANTEPEC AND INDUCE GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN THE NEXT 3 HOURS. 
AN ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS AT 0400 UTC SHOWED 30 KT N WINDS N 
OF 15.5N IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE ANOTHER 24 HOURS THROUGH SUN NIGHT THEN DECREASE TO 20 
TO 30 KT EARLY MON...BECOMING 20 KT OR LESS BY LATE MON NIGHT.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO 09N86W TO 06N93W TO 
07N103W TO 11N114W TO 10N132W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 10N132W TO 
12N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 09N TO 15N 
BETWEEN 114W AND 120W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF 11.5N110W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                
A 1008 MB LOW N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 15N111W WILL DRIFT 
NORTHWARD TODAY AND MAY INTENSIFY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. 
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE LOW MOVING NE AND INTENSIFYING MON NEAR 
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA WITH WINDS TO 25-30 KT 
AND SEAS BUILDING TO 11-12 FT. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO 
BECOME UNFAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT MON AFTERNOON.

A COLD FRONT NW OF THE AREA WILL APPROACH FAR NW PORTION TODAY 
AND SPREAD LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL TO 10-12 FT INTO THE AREA 
NW OF A LINE FROM 30N137W TO 25N140W THROUGH MON. THE FRONT WILL 
LOSE ITS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT THROUGH TONIGHT THEN WEAKEN INTO A 
FRONTAL TROUGH MON THROUGH TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NW 
PART OF AREA CENTERED NEAR 25N133W.

$$
MUNDELL