000 AXPZ20 KNHC 090332 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SUN NOV 09 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1007 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 15N111W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 16N- 19N BETWEEN 109W-112W. CURRENTLY WINDS ARE MODERATE BREEZE WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME UNFAVORABLE BY MONDAY. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...THE NEXT STRONG NORTHERLY PULSE SHOULD BEGIN TONIGHT INITIALLY AT 20-25 KT...THEN QUICKLY INCREASING BY SUN MORNING REACHING MINIMAL GALE FORCE OF 25-35 KT BY SUN AFTERNOON WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8-12 FT. GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO BELOW GALE FORCE LATE SUN NIGHT. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 6N77W ALONG 6N81W 7N88W 6N96W 10N104W TO 1008 MB LOW NEAR 15N111W THEN 11N119W TO 9N133W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO 10N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 116W-118W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 107W-110W...AND 10N-13N BETWEEN 112W-124W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE DEEP TROPICS NEAR 12N138W WITH A SECOND TO THE E-NE NEAR 16N107W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY/STABLE AIR AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS COVERS THE AREA FROM 12N-24N BETWEEN 123W-136W AND N OF 24N E OF 132W TO ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND OVER MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH EASTERN RIDGE IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 112W AND 124W. SEAS WILL BUILD OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA EARLY SUN WITH STRONG WINDS INCREASING THROUGH SUN EVENING. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DECREASE LEAVING SWELLS BUILDING SEAS TO 8 TO 11 FT THROUGH MON. $$ PAW