000
AXPZ20 KNHC 082133
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC SAT NOV 08 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.                       

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1008 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 14N111W 
WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 14N-
17N BETWEEN 109W-112W. CURRENTLY WINDS ARE MODERATE BREEZE WITH 
SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR 
SOME DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED TO BECOME UNFAVORABLE BY MONDAY. THERE IS A MEDIUM 
CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE. 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...THE NEXT STRONG NORTHERLY 
PULSE SHOULD BEGIN THIS EVENING INITIALLY AT 20-25 KT...THEN 
QUICKLY INCREASING TONIGHT AND SUN MORNING REACHING MINIMAL GALE 
FORCE OF 25-35 KT BY SUN AFTERNOON WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8-12 
FT. GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO BELOW GALE FORCE SUN 
NIGHT.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 6N77W ALONG 8N84W 6N94W 10N105W TO 
THE 1008 MB LOW IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES NEAR 14N111W TO 11N127W 
WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 10N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-6N E OF 81W TO 
OVER COLOMBIA...FROM 6N TO MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 83W-87W...AND 
FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 110W-123W. 

...DISCUSSION...  

AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE DEEP TROPICS NEAR 12N135W WITH 
A SECOND TO THE E-NE NEAR 16N107W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH 
DRY/STABLE AIR AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS COVERS THE AREA FROM 
12N-22N BETWEEN 123W-137W AND N OF 22N E OF 132W TO ACROSS BAJA 
CALIFORNIA AND OVER MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED 
WITH EASTERN RIDGE IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH 
THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 110W AND 123W. 

SEAS WILL BUILD OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA EARLY 
SUN WITH WINDS STRONG WINDS INCREASING THROUGH SUN EVENING. 
WINDS WILL QUICKLY DECREASE LEAVING SWELLS BUILDING SEAS TO 8 TO 
10 FT THROUGH MON. 

$$
PAW