000 AXPZ20 KNHC 081530 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SAT NOV 8 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1008 MB LOW PRES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 14N111W ONLY HAS 10-15 KT WINDS. BANDS OF CONVECTION ARE SEPARATED FROM THE LOW CENTER. ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION AS THE LOW MOVES NW THROUGH SUN WITH A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...THE NEXT STRONG NORTHERLY PULSE SHOULD BEGIN THIS EVENING INITIALLY AT 20-25 KT...THEN QUICKLY INCREASE TONIGHT AND SUN MORNING REACHING MINIMAL GALE FORCE OF 25-35 KT BY SUN AFTERNOON WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8-12 FT. GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO BELOW GALE FORCE MON. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH FROM 6N77W TO 7N85W TO 5N95W TO LOW PRES NEAR 14N111W TO 11N127W. ITCZ FROM 11N127W TO 9N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 9N-17N BETWEEN 106W AND 116W. ...DISCUSSION... UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA EXTENDS FROM 32N131W TO 21N127W. IN THE DEEP TROPICS AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 11N138W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS N OF 15N W OF 125W AND N OF 20N BETWEEN 105W AND 125W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 16N108W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ANTICYCLONE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION FROM 9N-17N BETWEEN 106W-116W. NE-E WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AT 15-20 KT TODAY WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 20 KT TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-10 FT IN NW SWELL NW OF A LINE FROM 32137W TO 28N140W SUN EVENING. $$ DGS