000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080925
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC SAT NOV 8 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.                       

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...1008 MB LOW PRES EMBEDDED 
WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 14N110W ONLY HAS 10-15 KT WINDS 
BASED ON 0500 UTC ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE CENTER WITH 
CONVECTION TRYING TO FORM INTO BANDS. ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE 
FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION AS THE LOW MOVES NW THROUGH SUN. 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...N WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 20-
25 KT WITH SEAS TO 7 FT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO 14.5N95W. 
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT THIS MORNING. THE 
NEXT STRONG NORTHERLY PULSE SHOULD BEGIN SAT EVENING INITIALLY 
AT 20-25 KT...THEN QUICKLY INCREASE SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING 
REACHING MINIMAL GALE FORCE OF 25-35 KT BY SUN AFTERNOON WITH 
SEAS BUILDING TO 8-12 FT. GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST 
THROUGH SUNRISE ON MON THEN THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX SUPPORTING 
ONLY 15-20 KT NE WINDS BY MON AFTERNOON.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ORIGINATES OVER THE COAST OF COLOMBIA 
NEAR 06N77W AND EXTENDS TO 08N84W TO 07N97W TO LOW PRES NEAR 
14N110W TO 12N124W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 12N124W TO 08N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM N AND 120 NM S OF 
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 100W AND 117W.

...DISCUSSION...  

.GULF OF CALIFORNIA...N-NE 10-15 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 
EARLY SUN...THEN THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX WITH THE FLOW BECOMING 
SOUTHERLY AT 5 KT SUN EVENING...THEN INCREASING TO 10 KT ON MON 
AND TUE. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO....ENE 15 KT WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT 
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING SAT. NOCTURNAL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO 
MAX AT 15 KT LATE SAT NIGHT AND 15-20 KT ON SUN NIGHT. 

.NE-E 15-20 KT TRADES WITH SEAS OF 6-7 FT IN MIXED NE AND NW 
SWELL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS FROM 10-18N BETWEEN 
123-140W. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 7 FT 
LATER TODAY. 

$$
MUNDELL