000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080335
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC SAT NOV 08 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0215 UTC.                       

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...A 1008 MB LOW PRES IS 
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 13N109W BUT IS CURRENTLY 
ONLY ACCOMPANIED BY SE-S-SW 10-15 KT WINDS WITHIN 240 NM OVER 
THE SE SEMICIRCLE AND N-NE 5-10 KT WINDS OVER THE NW SEMICIRCLE 
OF CENTER. CURRENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 150 NM OVER THE NE SEMICIRCLE OF 
CENTER...WITH CONVECTION TRYING TO BAND. ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS
 ARE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AS THE 
CENTER MOVES NW TO NEAR 13N109W ON SAT AND NEAR 15N112W ON SUN. 
THE SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO TURN MORE NORTHERLY REACHING NEAR 
18N113W ON MON...NEAR 21N110W ON TUE AND NEAR 21N108W. 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...THE NORTHERLY FLOW HAS 
CURRENTLY DIMINISHED 20-25 KT/SEAS 5-7 FT OVER AND DOWNSTREAM 
OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO AS FAR S AS 14.5N95W. THE WINDS WILL 
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT LATE TONIGHT. THE NEXT 
NORTHERLY PULSE SHOULD BEGIN ON SAT EVENING INITIALLY AT 
20-25 KT WITHIN 30 NM OF LINE FROM 16N94.5W TO 15N95W...THEN QUICKLY
INCREASE DURING SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING REACHING MINIMAL GALE 
FORCE OF 25-35 KT BY SUN AFTERNOON WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8-12 FT.
THE GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SUNRISE ON MON
THEN THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX SUPPORTING ONLY 15-20 KT NE WINDS BY
MON AFTERNOON.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ORIGINATES OVER THE COAST OF COLOMBIA 
AT 07N83W AND EXTENDS NW ACROSS SOUTHERN PANAMA TO 07N94W...THEN TURNS 
THROUGH AN EMBEDDED LOW PRES AT 13N109W...THEN TURNS SW TO 09N136W
WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ.
ITCZ FROM 09N136W TO BEYOND 08N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE AND STRONG
CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINES FROM 07N81W TO 07N88W 
AND FROM 07N98W TO 11N107W...WITHIN 180 NM OF 14N118W...WITHIN 
120 NM OF 15.5N114W...AND WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 12N121W TO 
07N140W.

...DISCUSSION...  

.GULF OF CALIFORNIA...N-NE 5-15 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 
EARLY SUN...THEN THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX WITH THE FLOW BECOMING 
SOUTHERLY AT 5 KT SUN EVENING...THEN INCREASING TO 10 KT ON MON 
AND TUE. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO....ENE 15 KT WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT 
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING ON SAT. THE NOCTURNAL FLOW IS 
EXPECTED TO MAX AT 15 KT LATE SAT NIGHT AND 15-20 KT ON SUN 
NIGHT. 

.NE-E 15-20 KT TRADES WITH SEAS OF 6-8 FT IN MIXED NE AND NW 
SWELL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS FROM 10-18N BETWEEN 
123-140W. THE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT TONIGHT. 

$$
NELSON