000
AXPZ20 KNHC 072153
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC FRI NOV 07 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.                       

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...A 1008 MB LOW PRES IS 
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 12N108W BUT IS CURRENTLY 
ONLY ACCOMPANIED BY SE-S-SW 10-15 KT WINDS WITHIN 210 NM OVER 
THE SE SEMICIRCLE AND N-NE 5-10 KT WINDS OVER THE NW SEMICIRCLE 
OF CENTER. CURRENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 240 NM OVER THE NW SEMICIRCLE OF 
CENTER...BUT THE CONVECTION IS UNORGANIZED. ATMOSPHERIC 
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AS THE 
CENTER MOVES NW TO NEAR 13N109W ON SAT AND NEAR 15N112W ON SUN. 
THE SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO TURN MORE NORTHERLY REACHING NEAR 
18N113W ON MON...NEAR 21N110W ON TUE AND NEAR 21N108W. 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...THE NORTHERLY FLOW HAS 
CURRENTLY DIMINISHED 20-25 KT/SEAS 7-11 FT OVER AND DOWNSTREAM 
OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO AS FAR S AS 12N97W. THE WINDS WILL 
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT LATE TONIGHT. THE NEXT 
NORTHERLY PULSE SHOULD BEGIN ON SAT EVENING INITIALLY AT 
20-25 KT WITHIN 30 NM OF LINE FROM 16N94.5W TO 15N95W...THEN QUICKLY
INCREASE DURING SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING REACHING MINIMAL GALE 
FORCE OF 25-35 KT BY SUN AFTERNOON WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8-12 FT.
THE GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SUNRISE ON MON
THEN THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX SUPPORTING ONLY 15-20 KT NE WINDS BY
MON AFTERNOON.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ORIGINATES OVER THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA 
AT 09N76W AND EXTENDS W ACROSS NORTHERN PANAMA AND OFFSHORE THE 
PACIFIC COAST OF EXTREME SOUTHERN COSTA RICA AT 10N84W... 
CONTINUING W TO 08N94W...THEN TURNS NW THROUGH AN EMBEDDED 1008 
MB LOW PRESSURE AT 12N108W...THEN CONTINUES NW TO 13N117W WHERE 
SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ. THE ITCZ 
THEN TURNS ABRUPTLY SW TO 07N134W...THEN NW TO BEYOND 09N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER AND 
TO THE S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINES 
FROM 07N83W TO 07N88W AND FROM 08N96W TO 11N107W. SIMILAR 
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 180 NM OF 10N112W...WITHIN 150 NM 
OF 15N116W...AND OVER AND ALONG THE ITCZ WITHIN 120 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.5N123W TO 07N136W TO 09N140W.   

...DISCUSSION...  

.GULF OF CALIFORNIA...N-NE 5-15 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 
EARLY SUN...THEN THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX WITH THE FLOW BECOMING 
SOUTHERLY AT 5 KT SUN EVENING...THEN INCREASING TO 10 KT ON MON 
AND TUE. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO....ENE 15 KT WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT 
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING ON SAT. THE NOCTURNAL FLOW IS 
EXPECTED TO MAX AT 15 KT LATE SAT NIGHT AND 15-20 KT ON SUN 
NIGHT. 

.NE-E 15-20 KT TRADES WITH SEAS OF 6-8 FT IN MIXED NE AND NW 
SWELL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS FROM 10-18N BETWEEN 
123-140W. THE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT TONIGHT. 

$$
NELSON