000 AXPZ20 KNHC 071509 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC FRI NOV 7 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW LOCATED NEAR 11N106W HAS INCREASED AND BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWEST. IT HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH FROM 9N84W TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N106W 1008 MB TO 12N120W. ITCZ FROM 12N120W TO 7N135W TO 9N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 104W- 112W AND FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 113W-119W AND FROM 6N-9N W OF 130W. ...DISCUSSION... UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 26N123W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS N OF 10N W OF 125W AND N OF 20N BETWEEN 105W AND 125W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 14N110W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ANTICYCLONE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION FROM 9N-16N BETWEEN 104W-119W. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND A COLD FRONT IN SOUTHERN MEXICO IS TIGHTENING THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE NLY WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO BELOW GALE FORCE...BUT ARE STILL IN 20-30 KT RANGE. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 20 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT SAT. GULF OF PAPAGAYO....NE-E WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE BRIEFLY TO 20-25 KT THIS MORNING THEN DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON...AND MAY PULSE AGAIN TO 20-25 KT SAT NIGHT AS WELL. $$ DGS