000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070958
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC FRI NOV 7 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.                       

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                          
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND A COLD FRONT IN SOUTHERN MEXICO IS 
TIGHTENING THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC 
EARLY THIS MORNING...AND IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD 
OF MINIMAL GALES IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THAT WILL EXTEND 
LATER THIS MORNING DOWNSTREAM TO NEAR 13.5N96W. WINDS AND SEAS 
SHOULD TO SUBSIDE TO 20-25 KT THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE 
ALSO SUGGESTS N-NE WINDS WILL INCREASE SAT NIGHT...WITH MINIMAL 
GALES BEGINNING SUN AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY MON. 

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
LOCATED NEAR 10.5N106W HAS INCREASED AND BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER 
ORGANIZED TONIGHT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 
MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS 
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWEST. IT HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 08N89W TO A LOW PRES 
NEAR 10.5N106W 1009 MB TO 13N120W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 13N120W 
TO 08N134W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM N AND 90 NM S OF THE TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 
103W AND 111W...AND WITHIN 90 NM N AND 45 NM S OF THE MONSOON 
TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 114W AND 127W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                 
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NW OF FORECAST AREA NEAR 38N131W EXTENDS 
A RIDGE SOUTHWARD TO THE CONVERGENCE ZONE BETWEEN 110W AND 140W. 
FRESH TO STRONG TRADES EARLIER ON THU FROM 11N TO 16N W OF 135W 
ALLOWED SEAS TO BUILD TO 9-10 FT IN THE AREA...BUT LATEST ASCAT 
IMAGERY SHOWS WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT AND ALTIMETER DATA INDICATES 
8-9 FT SEAS FROM 10N TO 18N W OF 136W. EXPECT SIZE OF 8 FT SEAS 
TO SHRINK TODAY AND SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT E OF 140W THIS EVENING. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO....NE-E WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE BRIEFLY 
TO 20--25 KT EARLY THIS MORNING THEN DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT DURING 
THE DAY...AND MAY PULSE AGAIN TO 20-25 KT SAT NIGHT AS WELL. 

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A VERY BRIEF SURGE TO 20-25 KT WINDS IS 
POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS N PORTIONS...THEN RAPIDLY 
DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT IN NW WINDS N OF 25N THROUGH EARLY SUN. 
 
$$
MUNDELL