000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070342
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC FRI NOV 07 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC.                       

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A COLD FRONT IS SHIFTING RATHER QUICKLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE 
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND WAS QUICKLY APPROACHING VERACRUZ 
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS NOSING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS MEXICO 
BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL BUILD INTO SOUTHEAST MEXICO NW OF THE 
FRONT OVERNIGHT. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS WILL PRODUCE A 
BRIEF PERIOD OF MINIMAL GALES OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC...AND EXTEND BY MORNING DOWNSTREAM TO THE SW TO NEAR 
13.5N96W. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE CURRENTLY 20-25 KT WINDS ACROSS 
THE GULF WITH SEAS TO 9 FT...BUT WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 6 HOURS. MAXIMUM SEAS WILL BUILD TO 11 FT 
OVERNIGHT BEFORE WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TO 20-25 KT 
DURING THE DAY FRI. COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALSO SUGGESTING 
THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON SAT NIGHT...WITH A 
MINIMAL GALE EVENT BEGINNING SUN AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO 
THE EARLY NIGHT HOURS. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ORIGINATES OVER COLOMBIA NEAR 08N74W TO 
09N85W TO LOW PRES NEAR 10.5N105W 1009 MB TO 13N112W TO 
08N131W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING ON TO BEYOND 
10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED 
WITHIN 150 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 96W AND 110W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 210 NM N AND 60 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 
112W AND 126W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 
120 NM SE AND 90 NM W QUADRANTS OF 1009 MB LOW PRES NEAR 
10.5N105W.

...DISCUSSION...  
AN INVERTED TROUGH LINGERS TONIGHT FROM NEAR THE TRES MARIAS 
ISLANDS OFF THE W COAST OF MEXICO TO NEAR 15N110W...AND IS 
COMBINING WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH AND A WEAKENING RIDGE ACROSS 
NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO PRODUCE A ZONE OF ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL 
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...WHICH IS PRODUCING THE ACTIVE CONVECTION 
DESCRIBED ABOVE BETWEEN 112W AND 126W. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED 
IN THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND ACTIVE 
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST BETWEEN 105W AND 125W. 

A 1024 MB HIGH WAS CENTERED NEAR 38N131W AND EXTENDS A RIDGE S 
AND SE TO THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 110W AND 140W. FRESH TO 
STRONG TRADES 20-25 KT PREVAIL FROM 11N TO 14N W OF 137.5W WHERE 
SEAS ARE RUNNING 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED NE AND NW SWELL. ELSEWHERE 
N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH...NE-E 15-20 KT TRADES PREVAIL WITH SEAS 
OF 7-9 FT IN MIXED NE AND NW SWELL S OF 16N AND W OF 116W. THIS 
AFFECTED AREA SHOULD SHRINK TO ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 09-16N 
BETWEEN 131-140W BY FRI EVENING...THEN SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 
8 FT ON SAT MORNING. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO....NE-E WINDS 15-20 KT WINDS WITH SEAS OF 4-6 
FT ARE OCCURRING THIS EVENING THROUGH AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF 
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BRIEFLY TO 20--25 KT OVERNIGHT THEN 
DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...AND MAY PULSE 
AGAIN TO 20-25 KT SAT NIGHT AS WELL. 

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE NW FLOW HAS DIMINISHED TO 15-25 KT  
WITH SEAS OF 4-6 FT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS N OF 29N. ANOTHER 
VERY BRIEF SURGE TO 20-25 KT WINDS IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS 
THE N PORTIONS OF THE GULF...THEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH 
TO NW 10-15 KT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS TO THE N OF 25N WITH 
LITTLE CHANGE THEN FORECAST THROUGH EARLY SUN. 
 
$$
STRIPLING