000
AXPZ20 KNHC 062212
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC THU NOV 06 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC.                       

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ORIGINATES OVER COLOMBIA NEAR 09.5N75W 
TO 09N85W TO LOW PRES NEAR  10.5N104W 1009 MB TO 13N114W TO 
08N131W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING ON TO 
09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 05N77W TO 
09N85W TO 09N97W TO 13N103W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
WITHIN 120 S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 95W AND 108W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO STRONG WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH BETWEEN 110W AND 
127W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM S OF ITCZ W OF 131W.
 
...DISCUSSION...  

AN INVERTED TROUGH LINGERS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE ENTRANCE TO 
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO OFFSHORE OF CABO CORRIENTES TO NEAR 
16N108W...AND IS COMBINING WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH AND A 
WEAKENING RIDGE ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO PRODUCE A ZONE 
OF ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...WHICH IS PRODUCING 
THE ACTIVE CONVECTION DESCRIBED ABOVE BETWEEN 110W AND 127W. 
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE 
WEEKEND...AND ACTIVE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST BETWEEN 
105W AND 125W. 

A 1020 MB HIGH WAS CENTERED NEAR 32N129W AND EXTENDS A RIDGE S 
AND SE TO THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 115W AND 140W. FRESH TO 
STRONG TRADES 20-25 KT PREVAIL FROM 10N TO 15N W OF 135W WHERE 
SEAS ARE RUNNING 8 TO 11 FT IN MIXED NE AND NW SWELL. ELSEWHERE 
N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH...NE-E 15-20 KT TRADES PREVAIL WITH SEAS 
OF 7-9 FT IN MIXED NE AND NW SWELL S OF 16N AND W OF 112W. THIS 
AFFECTED AREA SHOULD SHRINK TO ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 10-19N 
BETWEEN 135-140W EARLY FRI...THEN SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT 
ON FRI NIGHT. 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY 20-25 KT WINDS DEVELOPED LATE  
LAST NIGHT OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND HAVE CONTINUED 
AROUND 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT TO 20-
25 KT AND GRADUALLY SPREAD SW TO AS FAR S AS 13N97W ON FRI 
BEFORE THE GRADIENT RELAXES AND WINDS DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT. 
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON 
SAT NIGHT...WITH A MINIMAL GALE EVENT BEGINNING SUN AFTERNOON 
AND CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY NIGHT HOURS. IT SHOULD BE 
MENTIONED THAT THE BEGINNING AND ENDING HOURS OF THIS NEXT EVENT 
DOES NOT CORRESPOND WITH THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MAXIMUM NOCTURNAL 
DRAINAGE FOR THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO....NE-E 15-20 KT WINDS WITH SEAS OF 4-6 FT ARE  
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING 
FRI OVER AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH SAT 
MORNING.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE NW FLOW HAS DIMINISHED TO 15-25 KT  
WITH SEAS OF 4-6 FT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS N OF 27.5N. IT IS 
POSSIBLE FOR ANOTHER VERY BRIEF SURGE TO 20-25 KT LATE TONIGHT 
TO OCCUR ACROSS THE N PORTIONS OF THE GULF...THEN WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO NW 10-15 KT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS TO 
THE N OF 25N WITH LITTLE CHANGE THEN FORECAST THROUGH EARLY SUN. 
 
$$
STRIPLING