000
AXPZ20 KNHC 061546
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC THU NOV 06 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.                       

...TROPICAL LOW...

A 1009 MB LOW PRES IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR   
10N102.5W AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY SW 15-20 KT WINDS/SEAS 5-7 FT 
AND SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 210 NM 
OVER THE SE SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE W-
NW TO NEAR 10.5W106W EARLY FRI...NEAR 12N108W EARLY SAT...NEAR 
14N109W EARLY SUN THEN BEGIN TO TURN MORE NORTHERLY REACHING 
NEAR 15N110W EARLY MON WITH THE GRADIENT THEN TIGHTENING AND 
INCREASING THE LOW LEVEL WINDS TO E-SE 20-25 KT/SEAS 8-12 FT 
WITHIN 180 NM OVER THE NE SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER. THE LOW IS THEN 
EXPECTED TO MOVE N-NE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE 
POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ORIGINATES OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR  
10.5N76W AND CONTINUES SW ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF PANAMA TO 
THE PACIFIC COAST OF PANAMA AT 08N83W TO 08N90W...THEN TURNS NW 
CONTINUING THROUGH AN EMBEDDED 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE AT 
10N102.5W...THEN CONTINUES NW TO 13N114W...THEN DIPS SW THROUGH 
08N130W TO BEYOND 10N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED OVER AND TO THE S OF THE MONSOON WITHIN 
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 05N77W TO 09N85W TO 09N97W TO 
13N103W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED 
ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE 
FROM 10N110W TO 15N116W TO 09N126W TO 10N134W.

...DISCUSSION...  

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY 20-25 KT WINDS DEVELOPED LATE  
LAST NIGHT OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND SHOULD DIMINISH TO 15-
20 KT BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER NORTHERLY 20-25 KT SURGE 
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THIS EVENING AND GRADUALLY SPREAD SW TO AS 
FAR S AS 12N97W ON FRI BEFORE THE GRADIENT RELAXES AND WINDS 
DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THE NORTHERLY FLOW 
WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON SAT NIGHT...WITH A MINIMAL GALE EVENT 
BEGINNING SUN AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY NIGHT 
HOURS. IT SHOULD BE MENTIONED THAT THE BEGINNING AND ENDING HOURS 
OF THIS NEXT EVENT DOES NOT CORRESPOND WITH THE CLIMATOLOGICAL 
MAXIMUM NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FOR THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO....NE-E 15-20 KT WINDS WITH SEAS OF 4-6 FT ARE  
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE 
MORNING OVER AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH SAT 
MORNING.

.GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE NW FLOW HAS DIMINISHED TO 15-20 KT  
WITH SEAS OF 3-5 FT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS N OF 28N. ITS 
POSSIBLE FOR ANOTHER VERY BRIEF SURGE TO 20-25 KT LATE TONIGHT 
TO THE N OF 30N...THEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO NW 10-
15 KT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS TO THE N OF 25N WITH LITTLE CHANGE 
THEN FORECAST THROUGH EARLY SUN. 
 
.NE-E 15-20 KT TRADES WITH SEAS OF 7-10 FT IN MIXED NE AND NW  
SWELL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS FROM 10-10N BETWEEN 
125-140W. THIS AFFECTED AREA SHOULD SHRINK TO ACROSS THE WATERS 
FROM 10-19N BETWEEN 135-140W EARLY FRI...THEN SEAS SHOULD 
SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT ON FRI NIGHT.  

$$
NELSON