000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060924
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC THU NOV 06 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0915 UTC.                       
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 08N93W TO LOW PRES NEAR 
10N101.5W 1008 MB TO 12N116W TO 08N125W TO 11N137W TO 09N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED 
WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 110W AND 113W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 
BETWEEN 114W AND 116W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED 
WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE BETWEEN 120W AND 135W.

...DISCUSSION...  

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM NEAR CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO 
SOUTHWARD TO THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 12N110W. AN AREA OF 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION PERSISTS NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF 
THESE FEATURES. UPPER DIVERGENCE ON THE SE OF AN UPPER TROUGH 
REACHING FROM NW MEXICO TO 25N125W TO 10N130W IS ALSO ENHANCING 
THIS CONVECTION. 

OVERNIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PULSING NEAR A 
PERSISTENT 1008 MB LOW PRES AREA ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 
10N102W. WITH TROUGHING TO THE NORTH...THE PRES GRADIENT REMAINS 
WEAK NEAR THE LOW. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 04 UTC INDICATED ONLY 
MODEST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRES AT THIS TIME. THE 
SURFACE LOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOWER TO MID LEVEL 
INVERTED TROUGH THAT IS DRIFTING WESTWARD. DIAGNOSTIC MODEL DATA 
SUGGEST CONDITIONS WERE SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF 
THIS THROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC IN THE PAST SEVERAL 
DAYS...AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT 
THE PULSES OF CONVECTION HELPING TO SUSTAIN THE LOW. GLOBAL 
MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT INDICATING THAT THIS LOW PRES 
AREA WILL PERSIST AS IT DRIFTS WNW OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS 
ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH...TOWARD AN AREA OF FAVORABLE UPPER 
DIVERGENCE TO THE SOUTH OF THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST. LOOKING 
AHEAD TO THE NEXT 3 TO 5 DAYS...ALTHOUGH TROPICAL CYCLONE 
DEVELOPMENT IS ATYPICAL THIS TIME OF YEAR...THERE IS A MODERATE 
CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FARTHER WEST...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRES ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH 
HAS DRIFTED WESTWARD TO 09N141W. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 06 UTC 
INDICATED WINDS TO 25 KT ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH...NEAR THE LOW 
PRES AND TO THE SOUTH OF 1023 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 
30N130W. CONCURRENT ALTIMETER PASSES INDICATED SEAS TO AROUND 11 
FT IN THIS AREA AND FARTHER EAST TO 125W NEAR THE MONSOON 
TROUGH...LIKELY THE PRODUCT OF MIXED NE AND NW SWELL. THE WINDS 
WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS TO LESS THAN 8 FT OVER 
THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. 

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...SUCCESSIVE ASCAT PASSES OVER THE PAST 
SEVERAL HOURS INDICATED STRONG NW TO N WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN 
PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA ARE WEAKENING AS BOTH HIGH 
PRES W OF THE AREA AND LOW PRES TO THE EAST WEAKEN. THE WINDS 
ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS THROUGH EARLY 
AFTERNOON.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A 04 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED FRESH TO 
STRONG GAP WINDS STARTING TO PUSH INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. 
THIS WILL LATER THIS MORNING...BUT EXPECT A REPEAT TONIGHT INTO 
FRI MORNING. LOOKING AHEAD...GLOBAL MODELS ARE STILL HINTING 
THAT A MINIMAL GALE MAY SET UP ON SUNDAY.
 
$$
CHRISTENSEN