000 AXPZ20 KNHC 060348 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC THU NOV 06 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0215 UTC. ...TROPICAL LOWS... A 1008 MB LOW PRES CENTER IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 09.5N101.5W MOVING W 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM ACROSS THE SE QUADRANT OF THIS LOW. OTHERWISE...WINDS SURROUNDING THE LOW WERE 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 6-7 FT. HOWEVER...COMPUTER MODELS SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS LOW TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS IT MOVES W-NW AND APPROACHED 110W...AND AN AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N74.5W TO 10N84.5W TO 1008 MB LOW PRES NEAR 09.5N101.5W TO 12.5N113W TO 08.5N125W TO 1008 MB LOW PRES NEAR 10.5N137W TO 08.5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH FROM 108W TO 116W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 90 NM N AND 120 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 122W AND 140W. ...DISCUSSION... THE REMNANT LOW OF VANCE HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE NE AND FARTHER INLAND THIS EVENING...AND IS ESTIMATED TO CURRENTLY BE DISSIPATING ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTALES IN SOUTHERN DURANGO. WINDS TO 20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING THERE. ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF VANCE AND STILL CONNECTED TO THE TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS IN THIS REGION...AND AREA STILL LEADING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HEAVY RAINS FROM THE PAST 24 TO 48 HOURS ACROSS THIS REGION HAVE LEFT SIGNIFICANT RAIN ACCUMULATIONS AND WET AND HEAVY SOILS...AND ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PLEASE REFER TO LOCAL WARNINGS CONCERNING POSSIBLE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. A SECOND 1008 MB LOW PRES CENTER NEAR 10.5N137W IS MOVING W ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH...WITH NE-E WINDS OF 20-25 KT OBSERVED WITHIN 240 NM OVER THE NW SEMICIRCLE AND SEAS OF 9-12 FT. THIS AREA OF ENHANCED TRADEWINDS IS EMBEDDED IN A MUCH LARGER AREA OF TRADES COVERING THE TROPICAL WATERS W OF 110W WITH NE-E WINDS OF 15-20 KT AND SEAS OF 7-10 FT PRIMARILY DUE TO A BROAD MIX OF SWELLS. A WEAKENING HIGH PRES RIDGE TO THE N CENTERED ON A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 32N129W IS COMBINING WITH THE LOW AND THE MONSOON TROUGH TO PRODUCE SUFFICIENT PRESS GRADIENT S OF 20N TO PROMOTE THIS BROAD AREA OF TRADES. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE W OF 140W EARLY THU. BY THEN THE AFFECTED AREA OF ENHANCED SEAS OF 7-11 FT WILL SHRINK TO WITHIN AREA FROM 09-20N BETWEEN 130-140W...THEN SHRINK FURTHER...ONLY COVERING THE TROPICAL WATERS FROM 11-20N BETWEEN 136-140W BY EARLY FRI. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW WINDS OF 20-25 KT WITH SEAS OF 6-9 FT WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO THE N OF 27.5N THIS EVENING....WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. THE PRES GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO RELAX WITH THE WINDS DIMINISHING TO 15-20 KT BY LATE THU MORNING WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 3-5 FT BY AFTERNOON. THE GRADIENT WILL FURTHER RELAX ON THU NIGHT WITH 10-15 KT NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS OF 2-4 FT FORECAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY EARLY FRI. THE HIGH PRES RIDGE ACROSS N PORTIONS IS ALSO INDUCING SUFFICIENT PRES GRADIENT THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO FORCE WINDS TO SPILL ACROSS N PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND YIELD NLY WINDS 20-25 KT WITHIN 90 NM OF THE W COAST OF THE PENINSULA N OF 28. THIS PRES GRADIENT WILL ALSO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO 20 KT OR LESS THU MORNING. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...LIGHT TO MODERATE N TO NW WINDS ARE PRESENTLY OCCURRING ACROSS THE GULF AND ADJACENT WATERS THIS EVENING...WITH COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THU MORNING...REACHING 20-25 KT ON THU AND FRI NIGHTS...BEFORE DIMINISHING...THEN INCREASE AGAIN TO A MINIMAL GALE EVENT BEGINNING SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNRISE ON MON. $$ STRIPLING