000 AXPZ20 KNHC 052213 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC WED NOV 05 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE REMNANT LOW OF VANCE WAS CENTERED INLAND NEAR 23.0N 105.5W 1008 MB AT 05/1800 UTC MOVING TOWARD THE NE OR 055 DEGREES AT 11 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. THIS REMNANT LOW OF VANCE WAS GENERALLY VOID OF DEEP CONVECTION...WHILE DEEP LAYERED S TO SW WINDS OCCURRING TO THE E AND SE OF THE LOW CONTINUED TO TRANSPORT ABUNDANT MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS MEXICO AND INTO SW TEXAS. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS ACROSS THE TROPICAL PACIFIC TO THE SOUTHEAST WERE PROVIDING FORCING FOR A LINE OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM NEAR 11N110W TO THE COASTAL ZONE NEAR MANZANILLO...AND CONTINUING FURTHER INLAND TO THE SIERRA MADRES. THESE CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE NE AND ACROSS THE SAME AREA DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND COULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL RESULTING IN LARGE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. REFER TO LOCAL WARNINGS CONCERNING POSSIBLE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. SEE THE LAST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY ON VANCE ISSUED UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL LOWS... A 1010 MB LOW PRES CENTER IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 09.5N100W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM SE AND 150 NM NW QUADRANTS. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE W-NW AROUND 10 KT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH ACTIVE CONVECTION PERSISTING IN THE VICINITY...AND THEN MOVE NW THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A SECOND 1010 MB LOW PRES CENTER NEAR 10N136.5W IS MOVING W ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION OCCURRING WITHIN 180 NM SE SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER. NE-E WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE OBSERVED WITHIN 240 NM OVER THE NW SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS OF 9-12 FT. THIS AREA OF ENHANCED TRADEWINDS IS EMBEDDED IN A MUCH LARGER AREA OF TRADES COVERING THE TROPICAL WATERS W OF 110W WITH NE-E WINDS OF 15-20 KT AND SEAS OF 7-10 FT PRIMARILY DUE TO A BROAD MIX OF SWELLS. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE W OF 140W EARLY THU. BY THEN THE AFFECTED AREA OF ENHANCED SEAS OF 7-11 FT WILL SHRINK TO WITHIN AREA FROM 09-20N BETWEEN 130-140W. THE AREA WILL FURTHER SHRINK ONLY COVERING THE TROPICAL WATERS FROM 11-20N BETWEEN 136-140W BY EARLY FRI. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH WAS ANALYZED FROM 09N74W TO 09.5N82W TO 1010 MB LOW PRES 09.5N100W TO 10N108W WHERE IT REMAINS FRACTURED...THEN RESUMES FROM 18N107.5W TO 12N114W TO 08N126W TO 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR 10N136.5W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 180 NM SE OF TROUGH FROM 18N107.5W TO 12.5N112W...WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 16.5N115W TO 11.5N129W AND ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH W OF 138W. EXCEPT AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROPICAL LOWS...ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 05N77W TO 09N95W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER AND TO THE S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 19N105W TO 11N110W...WELL N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.5N115W TO 11.5N129W AND ELSEWHERE ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 60 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH W OF 136W. ...DISCUSSION... .GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW WINDS OF 20-25 KT WITH SEAS OF 6-9 FT WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO THE N OF 28N THIS AFTERNOON....WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. AN ALTIMETER PASS THIS MORNING SHOWED SEAS TO 10 FT IN THIS AREA. THE PRES GRADIENT IS EXPECTED RELAX WITH THE WINDS DIMINISHING TO 15-20 KT BY EARLY THU WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 3-5 FT. THE GRADIENT WILL FURTHER RELAX ON THU NIGHT WITH 10-15 KT NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS OF 2-4 FT FORECAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY EARLY FRI. GULF OF PAPAGAYO....NE-E 20 KT WINDS WITH SEAS OF 5-7 FT WERE OBSERVED OVER AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AT SUNRISE THIS MORNING. EXPECT THE GRADIENT TO SUPPORT 15-20 KT CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING...AND AGAIN ON THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT ON THU AND FRI NIGHTS...BEFORE DIMINISHING...THEN INCREASE AGAIN TO A MINIMAL GALE EVENT BEGINNING SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNRISE ON MON. $$ STRIPLING