000 AXPZ20 KNHC 051555 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC WED NOV 05 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL DEPRESSION VANCE WAS CENTERED NEAR 22.7N 105.7W 1005 MB AT 05/1500 UTC MOVING TOWARD THE NE OR 055 DEGREES AT 11 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT NEAR THE CENTER. VANCE CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE STRONG SW SHEAR WITH SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION RECENTLY FLARED WITHIN 30 NM OF THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 106- 107W AND IS MOVING FURTHER INLAND. A TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM VANCE TO 16N108W WITH SIMILAR CONVECTION FLARING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 19N105W TO 11N110W. THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS CONTINUE TO TRAIN ECHO ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 103-105W AND LIKELY RESULT IN LARGE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. REFER TO LOCAL WARNINGS CONCERNING POSSIBLE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THE RADIUS OF 12 FT SEAS IS ESTIMATED WITHIN 60 NM OVER THE E AND WITHIN 30 NM OVER THE W SEMICIRCLES OF THE CENTER. REFER TO LOCAL WARNINGS FOR POSSIBLE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS UNTIL THESE SEAS SUBSIDE BELOW 12 FT THIS EVENING. DENSE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THESE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS CONTINUES TO ADVECT N-NE ACROSS N-CENTRAL MEXICO AND FANS OUT OVER THE S-CENTRAL CONUS...AND ALSO TURNS E ACROSS THE SE CONUS. VANCE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE MOVING INLAND NEAR 23.0N 105.0W THIS EVENING. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL LOWS... A 1009 MB LOW PRES IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 08N98W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CURRENTLY WITHIN 120 NM OVER THE NW QUADRANT. NE-E 20-25 KT WINDS ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVED WITHIN 90 NM OVER THE N SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS OF 7-9 FT. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE W-NW TO NEAR 09.5W 102W EARLY THU...WITH ASSOCIATED WINDS DIMINISHING TO 15- 20 KT AND SEAS SUBSIDING TO 4-7 FT. THE LOW WILL REACH NEAR 10.5N 105.5W EARLY FRI AND THEN CONTINUE TO MOVE NW THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A LOW PRES NEAR 11N134W IS ANALYZED AT 1009 MB AND IS MOVING SLOWLY W ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION HAS FLARED WITHIN 240 NM OVER THE S SEMICIRCLE OF THE CENTER. NE-E WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE OBSERVED WITHIN 150 NM OVER THE NW SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS OF 9-11 FT. THIS SMALL AREA OF ENHANCED WINDS IS EMBEDDED IN A MUCH LARGER AREA OF TRADES COVERING THE TROPICAL WATERS W OF 110W WITH NE-E WINDS OF 15-20 KT AND SEAS OF 7-10 FT PRIMARILY DUE TO A BROAD MIX OF SWELLS. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO PASS W OF 140W EARLY THU. BY THEN THE AFFECTED AREA OF ENHANCED SEAS OF 7-11 FT WILL SHRINK TO WITHIN AREA FROM 09-20N BETWEEN 130-140W. THE AREA WILL FURTHER SHRINK ONLY COVERING THE TROPICAL WATERS FROM 11-20N BETWEEN 136-140W BY EARLY FRI. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED ALONG 10N FROM THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF COLOMBIA TO ACROSS NORTHERN COSTA RICA TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA RICA AT 09.5N84W...THEN CONTINUES W-SW INTO THE EMBEDDED LOW PRESSURE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED NEAR 08N98W...WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH THEN CONTINUING NW TO NEAR 12N106W WHERE IT LOSSES IDENTITY. THE MONSOON TROUGH RESUMES NEAR 13N113W AND CONTINUES SW TO 10N124W...THEN TURNS W INTO THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED EMBEDDED LOW PRESSURE NEAR 11N134W...WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH CONTINUING SW TO BEYOND 09N140W. EXCEPT AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROPICAL LOWS...ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 05N77W TO 09N95W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER AND TO THE S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 19N105W TO 11N110W...WELL N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.5N115W TO 11.5N129W AND ELSEWHERE ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 60 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH W OF 136W. ...DISCUSSION... .GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW WINDS OF 20-25 KT WITH SEAS OF 6-9 FT WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO THE N OF 28N THIS MORNING. THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED RELAX WITH THE WINDS DIMINISHING TO 15-20 KT BY EARLY THU WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 3-5 FT. THE GRADIENT WILL FURTHER RELAX ON THU NIGHT WITH 10-15 KT NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS OF 2-4 FT FORECAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY EARLY FRI. GULF OF PAPAGAYO....NE-E 20 KT WINDS WITH SEAS OF 5-7 FT WERE OBSERVED OVER AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AT SUNRISE THIS MORNING. EXPECT THE GRADIENT TO SUPPORT 15-20 KT CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING...AND AGAIN ON THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT ON THU AND FRI NIGHTS. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THE NEXT MINIMAL GALE EVENT WILL OCCUR BEGINNING SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNRISE ON MON. $$ NELSON