000
AXPZ20 KNHC 051021 CCA
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED                        
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC TUE NOV 04 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0915 UTC.                       

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                          

TROPICAL STORM VANCE WAS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT 
05/0900 UTC...CENTERED NEAR 21.9N 106.9W...OR ABOUT 40 NM NW OF 
LAS TRES MARIAS...MOVING NE AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS CONTINUE TO 
DIMINISH AND WERE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. VANCE CONTINUES TO 
WEAKEN THIS MORNING DUE TO STRONG SW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...WHICH 
HAS DISPLACED THE MID LEVEL CENTER AND MOST OF THE CONVECTION 
OFF TO THE NE...WHERE SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
WAS OCCURRING N OF 18N E OF 106W. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 
INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 12 INCHES ARE STILL EXPECTED 
TROUGH TODAY OVER THE STATES OF SINALOA... NAYARIT....AND 
DURANGO IN WESTERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO PRODUCE 
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN 
AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY VANCE 
ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND 
BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE 
SUBSIDING QUICKLY. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY TO CAUSE VERY LARGE 
AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS LEADING TO LIFE-THREATENING RIP 
CURRENT CONDITIONS. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 08N100W TO TO LOW 
PRES NEAR 08N97W TO 13N105W...WHERE IT HAS FRACTURED FROM 
VANCE...THEN RESUMES FROM 13N112W TO 10N125W TO LOW PRES NEAR 
11N133W TO 09N137W...THEN TRANSITIONS TO AN ITCZ TO 08N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM OF LOW PRES 
NEAR 08N97W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
OBSERVED WITHIN 90 SE QUADRANT OF LOW PRES NEAR 11N133.5W.

...DISCUSSION...  

ASCAT SATELLITE DATA FROM 0430 UTC INDICATED STRONG WINDS OVER 
THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND OFF THE WEST COAST OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA NORTE...BETWEEN 1027 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 
37N128W...AND WEAK LOW PRES OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND THE 
WEAKENING T.D. VANCE APPROACHING THE COAST OF SINALOA. WAVE 
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SEAS IN THE AREA OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC 
OCEAN N OF 10N BETWEEN 110W AND 130W ARE COMPRISED OF SEVERAL 
HIGH ENERGY WAVE GROUPS THAT WERE GENERATED FROM VANCE IT MADE A 
BROAD LOOP OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO OVER THE PAST SEVERAL 
DAYS. SEAS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 9 FT IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA DUE THE NW FLOW. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH 
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE 
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE HIGH PRES WEAKENS AND VANCE 
DISSIPATES.

A SHARP UPPER TROUGH IS NOTED FROM NW MEXICO TO NEAR 11N133W. 
THIS IS PROVIDING THE STRONG SW SHEAR RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RAPID 
WEAKENING OF VANCE NOTED IN THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. VERY DRY AIR 
IS NOTED W OF THIS UPPER TROUGH AXIS...BUT UPPER DYNAMICS ON THE 
SE SIDE OF THIS TROUGH IS SUPPORTING AREAS OF LOW PRES AND 
ASSOCIATED POCKETS OF CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH. ONE 
OF THESE AREAS WAS SAMPLED BY AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0430 UTC WHICH 
SHOWED A PERSISTENT LOW PRES NEAR 08N97W WITH AN ESTIMATED PRES 
OF 1008 MB. STRONG WINDS WERE OBSERVED WITHIN 90 NM ON THE N 
SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW...ALTHOUGH THIS WAS MUCH DIMINISHED FROM 
THE GALE FORCE WINDS NOTED NEAR THIS LOW OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF 
DAYS. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS 
IT DRIFTS WNW ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH...WITH OCCASIONAL PULSES 
OF MODERATE CONVECTION.

AT THE FAR SW END OF THE UPPER TROUGH...ANOTHER LOW PRES AREA IS 
NOTED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH FARTHER WEST NEAR 11N133W BY A 06 
UTC ASCAT SATELLITE PASS. WINDS TO 25 KT WERE NOTED ON THE NORTH 
SIDE OF THIS LOW...ALONG WITH SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 90 SE QUADRANT. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE W 
OF 140W OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ELSEWHERE MODERATE TO FRESH 
TRADE WINDS WERE NOTED SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE 
AREA FROM 08N TO 23N W OF 130W.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO....NE WINDS NEAR 20 KT WITH SEAS OF 5-7 FT WERE 
OBSERVED DOWNSTREAM OF PAPAGAYO TO 88W DURING THE PREVIOUS  
EVENING. HOWEVER...DRAINAGE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO IS 
EXPECTED TO BE INCREASING WINDS TO 20-25 KT THROUGH LATE  
MORNING BEFORE SUBSIDING BELOW 20 KT LATE AFTERNOON. NOCTURNAL 
WINDS MAY PULSE AGAIN TO NEAR 20 KT TONIGHT...BUT THE STRONG NE 
FLOW ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA WILL DIMINISH 
DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AND END THIS CURRENT GAP WIND EVENT. 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WITH WEAK HIGH PRES OVER THE WESTERN GULF 
OF MEXICO...THERE IS SOME DOUBT AS TO WHETHER WINDS ARE REACHING 
EVEN 25 KT CURRENTLY IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. MODELS GUIDANCE 
HAS BACKED OFF SHOWING A STRONG INDICATION OF 25 KT TONIGHT OR 
ON THU NIGHT...WITH A BORDERLINE CASE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. 
LOOKING AHEAD...THERE REMAINS BETTER CONSISTENCY SHOWING THE 
NEXT STRONG GALE TO SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING.
 
$$
CHRISTENSEN