000 AXPZ20 KNHC 041548 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC MON NOV 03 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE VANCE WAS CENTERED NEAR 19.3N 109.6W OR ABOUT 100 MILES E-NE OF SOCORRO ISLAND OR ABOUT 340 MILES SW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO AT 04/1500 UTC MOVING TOWARD THE N-NE OR 025 DEGREES AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 976 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. VANCE IS SHEAR FROM THE SW WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION CURRENTLY OBSERVED WITHIN 330 NM OVER THE E SEMICIRCLE OF THE CENTER. DENSE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM VANCE IS ADVECTED NE ACROSS N-CENTRAL MEXICO AND CONTINUING ACROSS THE S- CENTRAL CONUS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WED OVER THE STATES OF SINALOA...NAYARIT....AND DURANGO IN WESTERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY VANCE ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT INTO WED. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH VANCE WEAKENING BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH TONIGHT AND FURTHER WEAKENING TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE COAST OF MEXICO. HOWEVER...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM MAZATLAN NORTHWARD TO TOPOLOBAMPO MEXICO. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ASSOCIATED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ERODES. EXPECT TONIGHTS NORTHERLY DRAINAGE TO SUPPORT A MAXIMUM OF 25 KT. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT BY LATE THU...AND GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 20-30 KT BY SUNRISE FRI WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 12 FT. ...TROPICAL LOWS... A LOW PRES NEAR 13N106W IS ANALYZED AT 1008 MB AND IS MOVING NW AT 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ANALYZED WITHIN 300 NM NE QUADRANT AND WITHIN 210 NM NW QUADRANTS OF THE CENTER. SE WINDS OF 20-30 KT WITH SEAS OF 7-11 FT ARE OBSERVED WITHIN 150 NM OVER THE NE QUADRANT. ELSEWHERE FROM 09-15N BETWEEN 101-110W WINDS ARE MOSTLY SOUTHERLY AT 10-15 KT WITH SEAS OF 6-9 FT IN MIXED SE AND NW SWELL. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO REACH NEAR 14.5N106W AROUND SUNSET TODAY AND THEN DISSIPATE BY SUNRISE ON WED. A LOW PRES NEAR NEAR 11N131W IS ANALYZED AT 1007 MB AND IS MOVING SLOWLY W ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY OBSERVED WITHIN 240 NM OVER THE NE QUADRANT OF CENTER. SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE OBSERVED WITHIN 120 NM OVER THE SE QUADRANT WITH SEAS OF 7-9 FT. NE-E WINDS OF 20-30 KT WITH SEAS OF 9-12 FT ARE OBSERVED WITHIN 300 NM OVER THE NW SEMICIRCLE. THIS SMALL AREA IS EMBEDDED IN A MUCH LARGER AREA OF TRADES COVERING THE WATERS FROM 09-25N W OF 115W WITH NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT AND SEAS OF 7-11 FT PRIMARILY DUE TO MIXING NW...NE AND SE SWELL. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR 11N135W EARLY WED. BY THEN THE AFFECTED AREA WILL SHRINK WITHIN AREA BOUNDED BY A LINE FROM 29N120W TO 14N115W TO 10N140W TO 23N140W TO 29N120W WITH NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT WITH SEAS 0F 7- 10 FT. THE LOW WILL DISSIPATE BY EARLY THU WITH THE AREA OF NE 15-20 KT TRADES AND SEAS OF 6-9 FT WITHIN THE AREA BOUNDED BY A LINE FROM 20N140W TO 14N130W TO 09N140W TO 20N140W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED ALONG 09N FROM THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF COLOMBIA TO ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA AND PANAMA TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA RICA AT 09N79W...THEN DIPS SW TO 08N94W...THEN TURNS NW AN EMBEDDED 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE AT 13N106W. THE MONSOON TROUGH RESUMES SW OF THE LOW AT 13N114W AND CONTINUES WSW TO A 1007 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NEAR 11N131W WITH THE TROUGH CONTINUING SW TO 09N135W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ WHICH CONTINUES W TO BEYOND 08.5N140W. EXCEPT AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROPICAL LOWS...SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 05N77W TO 05N86W...ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07N94W TO 09N100W...WELL S OF THE LOW AT 13N106W WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10N103W TO 12N112W...S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 60 NM OF 09N119W...WELL NE OF THE LOW AT 11N131W WITHIN 60 NM OF 13N126W...AND WITHIN 30 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF PAPAGAYO....NE-E 20-25 KT WINDS WITH SEAS OF 5-8 FT WERE OBSERVED WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 11N86W TO 10N90W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AT SUNRISE THIS MORNING. AN AREA OF ENHANCED SEAS OF 7-9 FT IN MIXED N AND S SWELL WERE ALSO OBSERVED WITHIN THE AREA BOUNDED BY A LINE FROM 10N97W TO 10N91W TO 02N97W TO 10N97W. THE DRAINAGE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO SHOULD ONLY REACH 15-20 KT LATE TONIGHT...AND ONLY 15- 20 KT LATE WED NIGHT. THE AREA OF SUBSIDING MIXED SWELL SHOULD BE WITHIN THE AREA BOUNDED BY A LINE FROM 09N97W TO 04N93W 03N98W TO 09N97W WITH SEAS OF 7-9 FT EARLY WED...AND ONLY WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 08N98W TO 03N96W EARLY THU. .GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW WINDS OF 20-25 KT WITH SEAS OF 5-7 FT WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO THE N OF 29N THIS MORNING. THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN TODAY SPREADING NW- N WINDS 20-30 KT AS FAR S AS 26N BY SUNSET WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 6-8 FT IN THE LONG FETCH WATERS NEAR 30N113W. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX WITH NW-N WINDS OF 20-30 KT ONLY ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 28N EARLY WED...WITH WIND CONDITIONS BELOW 20 KT BY EARLY THU. $$ NELSON