000 AXPZ20 KNHC 032202 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC MON NOV 03 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE VANCE IS CENTERED NEAR 16.4N 110.8W OR ABOUT 400 NM... 745 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AT 03/2100 UTC MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TONIGHT...AND STEADY TO RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST THEREAFTER. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER. NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 107 AND 113W. SWELLS GENERATED BY VANCE ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. VANCE AND MOISTURE SPREADING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 12 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER THE STATES OF SINALOA...NAYARIT... AND DURANGO IN WESTERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE NOTED PER SCATTEROMETER DATA WITHIN 120 NM NE QUADRANT OF A 1008 MB LOW PRES CENTERED NEAR 10.5N103.5W. WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORE TONIGHT. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WHILE IT MOVES W-NW OR NW AT ABOUT 12 KT. AFTER THAT TIME...DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO STRONG UPPER- LEVEL WINDS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN WITHIN 120 NM N SEMICIRCLE. THIS LOW PRES HAS ONLY A LOW CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 09N84W TO 07N94W TO LOW PRES NEAR 10.5N103.5W 1008 MB TO 12N105W...THEN RESUMES FROM 11N115W TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N128W 1008 MB TO 09N133W. ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM 09N133W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 07N TO 13N BETWEEN 124W AND 131W. ...DISCUSSION... THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1030 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 32N133W AND THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ IS GENERATING A LARGE SWATH OF FRESH TO STRONG NE TRADE WINDS FROM 11N TO 22N W OF 120W WITH SEAS OF 8-12 FT. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT NE AWAY FROM THE AREA...ALLOWING THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES TO DECREASE FROM EARLY TUE TO EARLY WED. EARLY THIS MORNING A WINDSAT PASS SHOWED GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. LATER...A PAIR OF SHIP OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE AREA INDICATED WINDS BELOW GALE FORCE. SO THE WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 1800 UTC. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. AND N CENTRAL MEXICO WILL BEGIN TO ERODE THE HIGH PRES OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND WEAKEN THE PRES GRADIENT. WINDS WILL REMAIN 20-30 KT THROUGH TUE MORNING AND DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY WED MORNING. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG WINDS DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TO NEAR 8N92W. WINDS HERE SHOULD BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE TUE MORNING AS THE HIGH PRES TO THE N WEAKENS. THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA BETWEEN THIS HIGH PRES TO THE N AND LOWER PRES TO THE SE SHOULD BRING A FRESH TO STRONG NW TO N BREEZE TO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 26N BY LATE TUE. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO 20 KT OR LESS BY LATE WED. $$ GR