000
AXPZ20 KNHC 031508
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC MON NOV 03 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0830 UTC.                       

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                          
AT 1500 UTC...HURRICANE VANCE WAS CENTERED NEAR 14.5N 110.3W OR 
ABOUT 440 NM...815 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MOVING TOWARD THE 
NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE IS 971 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 90 KT WITH 
GUSTS TO 110 KT. VANCE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TONIGHT...WITH 
STEADY TO RAPID WEAKENING FORECAST THEREAFTER. NUMEROUS MODERATE 
TO STRONG FROM 11N TO 20N BETWEEN 106W AND 112W. SWELLS 
GENERATED BY VANCE ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF 
THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR IN A 
DAY OR TWO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING 
SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. SEE THE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. A 
DEEP LAYER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. AND N CENTRAL 
MEXICO WILL BEGIN TO ERODE THE HIGH PRES OVER THE WESTERN GULF 
OF MEXICO TODAY AND WEAKEN THE PRES GRADIENT. THE GALE WARNING 
IS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AROUND MIDDAY TODAY...BUT WINDS WILL 
REMAIN 20-30 KT THROUGH TUE MORNING AND DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR 
LESS BY WED MORNING.

GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE N SEMICIRCLE OF A 1008B LOW PRES 
CENTERED NEAR 09N88W. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN AND WINDS WILL 
DECREASE TO BELOW GALE FORCE THIS EVENING. THE LOW WHICH IS 
MOVING W-NW AT 15 KT. 
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 9N84W TO 7N91W TO LOW PRES NEAR 9N98W 1008 
MB TO 11N105W...THEN RESUMES FROM 12N115W TO LOW PRES NEAR 
11N128W 1008 MB TO 9N133W. ITCZ AXIS FROM 9N133W TO 9N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 124W 
AND 131W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 
32N134W AND THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ IS GENERATING A LARGE 
SWATH OF FRESH TO STRONG NE TRADE WINDS FROM 15N TO 21N W OF 
122W IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT NE 
AWAY FROM THE AREA...ALLOWING THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES 
TO DECREASE FROM EARLY TUE TO EARLY WED. THESE TRADES ARE IN A 
REGION OF NW SWELL OVER 8 FT AND WILL HELP TO PREVENT THE SEAS 
FROM SUBSIDING UNDER 8 FT HERE THROUGH EARLY WED.

ELY WINDS 20-30 KT ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. WINDS 
HERE SHOULD BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNRISE WHEN 
DRAINAGE FLOW STOPS AND ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW A STRONG 
BREEZE BY MIDDAY TUE AS THE HIGH PRES TO THE N ERODES AS 
EXPLAINED IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE PARAGRAPH ABOVE. 

THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA BETWEEN 
THIS HIGH PRES TO THE N AND LOWER PRES TO THE SE SHOULD BRING A 
FRESH TO STRONG NW TO N BREEZE TO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 
29N AROUND EARLY TUE. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO 20 
KT OR LESS BY  WED MORNING.

$$ 
DGS