000 AXPZ20 KNHC 030346 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC MON NOV 03 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... VANCE REACHED HURRICANE STATUS EARLY SUN MORNING. SO FAR... FIFTEEN HURRICANES HAVE FORMED IN THE EPAC REGION...NINE OF WHICH WERE MAJOR HURRICANES. AT 03/0300 UTC...VANCE IS CENTERED NEAR 13.7N 109.6W OR ABOUT 440 NM...815 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 973 MB. VANCE CONTINUES TO GAIN STRENGTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. VANCE MAY INTENSIFY SOME THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AND COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE. STEADY TO RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ON TUESDAY. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER. NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 09N TO 15N BETWEEN 105W AND 111W. SWELLS GENERATED BY VANCE ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR IN A DAY OR TWO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/ WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE SECOND GALE FORCE GAP WIND EVENT OF THE COLD SEASON 2014- 2015 HAS OCCURRED IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND WAS CONFIRMED BY SCATTEROMETER DATA. THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS CAPTURED AN AREA OF 30-40 KT NLY WINDS EXTENDING W-SW FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO NEAR 13N97. A RECENT WINDSAT PASS ALSO SHOWED GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC REMAINS TIGHT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT NLY WINDS OF 30-35 KT TO CONTINUE BLOWING ACROSS THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION UNTIL LATE MON MORNING. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO LOW PRES NEAR 09N96W 1010 MB TO 11N102W...THEN CONTINUES FROM 13N120W TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N128W 1008 MB TO 09N132W. ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM 09N132W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 95W AND 100W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM N OF ITCZ AXIS W OF 138W. ...DISCUSSION... A 1008 MB LOW PRES IS LOCATED NEAR 11N128W OR ABOUT 1245 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXTENDING NE- SW WITHIN AROUND 120 NM OF A LINE FROM 16N122W TO 12N127W TO 09N131W. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAIN DISORGANIZED AND STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND DRY AIR ARE EXPECTED TO INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WHILE IT MOVES W OR W-SW AT AROUND 10 KT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS LOW PRES HAS ONLY A LOW CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT/SHEARLINE EXTENDS FROM NW MEXICO ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA NEAR 27.5N112W TO NEAR 21N120W. NW SWELL IN THE 8 TO 13 FT RANGE CAN BE FOUND OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST QUARTER OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT. A 1027 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED NEAR 34N138W FOLLOWS THE FRONT AND CURRENTLY DOMINATES MOST OF THE FORECAST WATERS N OF 15N W OF 115W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH PRES AND THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ IS ALREADY PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE TRADES MAINLY 11N TO 22N W OF 125W. SCATTEROMETER DATA CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE WINDS. THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES IS FORECAST TO EXPAND TO NEAR 120W AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN ABOUT 24 HOURS . EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUE MORNING AS A STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. WINDS WILL PULSE TO A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE PRIMARILY IN THE MORNING HOURS AND MAY REACH 30 KT EARLY MON MORNING. $$ GR