000 AXPZ20 KNHC 022202 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SUN NOV 02 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... VANCE REACHED HURRICANE STATUS THIS MORNING AT 7 AM PST/1500 UTC. IT IS CENTERED NEAR 12.8N 108.6W OR ABOUT 445 NM...830 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AT 02/2100 UTC MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 KT. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND IS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT A WEAKENING TREND IS LIKELY TO BEGIN BY LATE MONDAY. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 104W AND 110W. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE 1620 UTC ASCAT PASS PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF NLY WINDS IN THE 35-40 KT RANGE ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. A SECOND AND STRONGER COLD FRONT IS NOW MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF BAY OF CAMPECHE. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL MAINTAIN MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION UNTIL LATE MON MORNING. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO LOW PRES NEAR 08N95W 1010 MB TO 09N100W...THEN CONTINUES FROM 11N115W TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N127W 1009 MB TO 09N131W. ITCZ AXIS FROM 09N131W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 12N BETWEEN 93W AND 100W. ...DISCUSSION... A 1009 MB LOW PRES CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 11N127W ABOUT 1220 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. CONVECTION HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AROUND THIS SYSTEM...PARTICULARLY S OF CENTER WHERE A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 122W AND 126W...AND FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 128W AND 130W. HOWEVER...THIS ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED AND STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND DRY AIR ARE EXPECTED TO INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WHILE IT MOVES W OR W-SW AT AROUND 10 KT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS LOW PRES HAS A LOW CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 28N112W TO 21N120W TO 19N130W. NW SWELL IN THE 8 TO 13 FT RANGE CAN BE FOUND OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST QUARTER OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT ALLOWING HIGH PRES TO BUILD OVER N WATERS. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALREADY PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE TRADES MAINLY 11N TO 23N W OF 125W. SCATTEROMETER DATA CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE WINDS. THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES IS FORECAST TO EXPAND TO NEAR 120W AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN ABOUT 24 HOURS . EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 86W MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS WILL PULSE TO A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE PRIMARILY IN THE MORNING HOURS AND MAY REACH 30 KT EARLY MON MORNING. $$ GR