000 AXPZ20 KNHC 020943 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SUN NOV 02 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0815 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM VANCE IS CENTERED NEAR 10.9N 106.5W OR ABOUT 505 NM...935 KM S-SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AT 02/0900 UTC MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND IS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 103W AND 114W. VANCE HAS STRENGTHENED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY MIDDAY TODAY AS IT CONTINUE W-NW. VANCE SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE N TONIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE WINDSAT PASS FROM AROUND 0038 UTC CAPTURED THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE AREA OF WINDS OVER 30 KT EXTENDING W-SW FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE PASS SHOWED WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE UP TO 120 NM W-SW OF SALINA CRUZ...MEXICO. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT HAS KEPT THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT 40 KT WINDS HERE WITH SEAS UP TO 17-18 FT. AFTER THE PEAK PERIOD OF DRAINAGE FLOW ENDS LATER THIS MORNING... MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL LATE MON MORNING. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE LIES ALONG 85W N OF 08N MOVING W AT 10 KT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE W OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 08N77W TO LOW PRE NEAR 09N92W 1010 MB TO 09N100W...THEN CONTINUES FROM 10N110W TO LOW PRES NEAR 12N126W 1009 MB TO 09N129W TO 09N133W. THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 09N133W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 45 NM SE SEMICIRCLE AND 180 NM W QUADRANT OF LOW PRES NEAR 09N92W. ...DISCUSSION... A 1009 MB LOW PRES CENTER LIES NEAR 12N126W ABOUT 1130 NM...2090 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. CONVECTION HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AROUND THIS SYSTEM. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 30 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND 60 NM W SEMICIRCLE....WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 121W AND 126W. THE 0622 UTC ASCAT-B PASS SHOWS WINDS TO 25 KT IN THE NW QUADRANT OF THE LOW. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS OVER N WATERS FROM 30N112W TO 23N118W THEN BECOMES A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT TO 20N130W. NW SWELL IN THE 8 TO 13 FT RANGE CAN BE FOUND OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST QUARTER OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE TODAY ALLOWING HIGH PRES TO BUILD OVER N WATERS. THIS WILL INCREASE THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND THE MONSOON TROUGH. THE ASCAT-A PASS FROM 0530 UTC AND ASCAT-B PASS FROM 0622 UTC SHOW FRESH TO STRONG NE TRADES AREA ALREADY IN PLACE S OF 22N W OF A LINE FROM 22N129W TO 11N140W. THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES IS FORECAST TO EXPAND AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THE FRESH TO STRONG TRADES LIE IN THE REGION OF NW SWELL OVER 8 FT AND WILL HELP TO PREVENT THE SEAS FROM SUBSIDING UNDER 8 FT HERE THROUGH EARLY TUE. EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THIS MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 85W MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS WILL PULSE TO A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE PRIMARILY IN THE MORNING HOURS AND MAY REACH 30 KT EARLY MON MORNING. $$ SCHAUER