000 AXPZ20 KNHC 020247 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SUN NOV 02 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0215 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM VANCE IS CENTERED NEAR 10.1N 104.4W OR ABOUT 535 NM...990 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AT 01/2100 UTC MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. VANCE APPEARS TO BE GRADUALLY ORGANIZING. DEEP CONVECTION HAS QUICKLY INCREASED NEAR THE CENTER DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS AND CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS ALSO INCREASED IN COVERAGE. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN AROUND 90 NM OF CENTER. NUMEROUS MODERATE IS NOTED ELSEWHERE FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 102W AND 107W. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND VANCE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED GALE FORCE WINDS OF 35- 40 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. A SECOND AND STRONGER COLD FRONT IS NOW REACHING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY PUSH SE OF THE GULF OF MEXICO LATER TONIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...ALLOWING 40 KT WINDS TO PERSIST UNTIL LATE SUN MORNING WITH SEAS UP TO 17-18 FT TONIGHT. MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL LATE MON MORNING. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N82W TO TO 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR 09N91W TO 09N102W...THEN RESUMES FROM 08N110W TO 1009 MB LOW PRES NEAR 11N123W TO 09N130W. ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 09N130W TO 09N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 89W AND 94W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 11N W OF 137W. ...DISCUSSION... AN AREA OF LOW PRES OF 1009 MB IS LOCATED NEAR 12N124W OR ABOUT 1085 NM...2000 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING LIMITED SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY WITH A SMALL CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM NE QUADRANT. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE MARGINAL CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND DRY AIR IN THE VICINITY SHOULD ALSO LIMIT SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE AT ABOUT 10 KT. THIS LOW PRES HAS A LOW CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO 23N122W WHERE IT BEGINS TO DISSIPATE TO 21N128W. LARGE AND LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM THE NW FOLLOWS THE FRONT WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 8-13 FT BASED ON AN ALTIMETER PASS. THIS SWELL EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS COVERING MUCH OF THE AREA W OF 110W BY LATE SUN. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN ALLOWING HIGH PRES TO BUILD OVER N WATERS. THIS WILL INCREASE THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND THE MONSOON TROUGH. TRADEWINDS HAVE ALREADY INCREASED TO 20-25 KT FROM 12N TO 24N W OF 130W WITH BUILDING SEAS OF 8-11 FT. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH MON WHILE EXTENDING FARTHER E TO ABOUT 125W. EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO BY EARLY SUN AS A STRONG COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NW CARIBBEAN REACHING FROM EASTERN CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS BY SUN NIGHT. THIS GAP WIND EVENT IS FORECAST TO PRIMARILY IMPACT THE AREA FROM 09N TO 11N E OF 90W THROUGH AT LEAST LATE MON MORNING WITH BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 10 FT. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY REACH 30 KT WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING. $$ GR