000
AXPZ20 KNHC 012145
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC SAT NOV 01 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.                       

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                    
TROPICAL STORM VANCE IS CENTERED NEAR 10.1N 104.4W OR ABOUT 535 
NM...990 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AT 01/2100 UTC MOVING TOWARD 
THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM 
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND IS 40 KT 
WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. VANCE APPEARS TO BE GRADUALLY ORGANIZING. 
CONVECTION HAS INCREASED NEAR THE CENTER AND CONVECTIVE BANDING 
HAS ALSO INCREASED IN COVERAGE. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW NUMEROUS 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM SW SEMICIRCLE. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED ELSEWHERE FROM 09N TO 15N 
BETWEEN 100W AND 109W. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE 
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND VANCE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE SUNDAY NIGHT 
OR MONDAY. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO 
HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

GALE FORCE WINDS OF 35-40 KT ARE BLOWING THROUGH THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC AS A COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH SE MEXICO. STRONG COLD 
AIR ADVECTION WILL BE AIDED BY VERTICAL MIXING OVER THE WARM 
WATERS OF THE PACIFIC ALONG WITH DRAINAGE FLOW IN THE EARLY 
MORNING HOURS...ALLOWING 40 KT WINDS TO PERSIST UNTIL MIDDAY 
SUN. EXPECT BUILDING SEAS OF 12-18 FT TO COINCIDE WITH THE 
STRONGEST WINDS. THIS GALE FORCE WIND EVENT IS FORECAST TO 
PERSIST UNTIL MIDDAY MONDAY. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO TO 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR 
09N90W TO 10N98W...THEN RESUMES FROM 08N106W TO 1009 MB LOW PRES 
NEAR 11N124W TO 10N130W. ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 10N130W TO 09N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 12N BETWEEN 92W AND 
100W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED FROM 09N TO 13N BETWEEN 
123W AND 125W AND NEAR 07N129W.
 
...DISCUSSION... 

AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRES AREA IS LOCATED NEAR 12N124W OR 
ABOUT 1085 NM...2000 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE 
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED 
SHOWERS AND TSTMS. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE 
GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW DURING THE 
NEXT DAY OR TWO...BUT DRY AIR IN THE VICINITY SHOULD LIMIT 
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT AS IT MOVES TO THE W OR WSW AT ABOUT 10 
KT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE 
IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
 
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS OVER N WATERS FROM 30N118W TO 21N130W WHERE 
IT BEGINS TO DISSIPATE TO 21N140W. SEAS OF UP TO 13 FT IN NW 
SWELL CAN BE FOUND OVER THE FAR NW WATERS BEHIND THE FRONT AS 
OBSERVED BY A RECENT ALTIMETER PASS. THIS SWELL EVENT IS 
FORECAST TO CONTINUE SE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND GRADUALLY 
SUBSIDE. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT  
ALLOWING HIGH PRES TO BUILD OVER N WATERS. THIS WILL INCREASE 
THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND THE MONSOON 
TROUGH. TRADEWINDS HAVE ALREADY INCREASED TO 20-25 KT FROM 12N 
TO 24N W OF 130W WITH SEAS OF 8-11 FT. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS 
ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH MON WHILE EXTENDING FARTHER E TO 
ABOUT 125W. 

EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO BY EARLY 
SUN AS THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY TRAVERSING CHIVELA PASS MOVES 
ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS GAP WIND EVENT IS 
FORECAST TO PRIMARILY IMPACT THE AREA FROM 09N TO 11N W OF 90W 
THROUGH AT LEAST LATE MON MORNING.

$$ 
GR