000
AXPZ20 KNHC 011510
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC SAT NOV 01 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.                       

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                    
TROPICAL STORM VANCE IS CENTERED NEAR 9.6N 103.2W OR ABOUT 550 
NM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO AT 01/1500 UTC MOVING TOWARD THE WEST 
OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 
1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 
ALTHOUGH VANCE HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY DURING THE PAST FEW 
HOURS...RE-STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF 
DAYS AND VANCE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY EARLY MONDAY. DEEP 
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH VANCE HAS DIMINISHED SINCE 
YESTERDAY...WITH THE CENTER EXPOSED AT TIMES. SATELLITE IMAGES 
SHOW A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 08N TO 14N 
BETWEEN 85W AND 106W. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 40 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AS 
A COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH CHIVELA PASS. STRONG COLD AIR 
ADVECTION WILL BE AIDED BY VERTICAL MIXING OVER THE WARM WATERS 
OF THE PACIFIC ALONG WITH DRAINAGE FLOW IN THE EARLY MORNING 
HOURS...ALLOWING 40 KT WINDS TO PERSIST UNTIL MIDDAY SUN. EXPECT 
SEAS OF 12-16 FT TO COINCIDE WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS. THIS GALE 
FORCE WIND EVENT IS FORECAST TO PERSIST UNTIL MIDDAY MONDAY. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 8N82W TO TO 1010 LOW PRES NEAR 9N90W TO 
9N99W...THEN RESUMES FROM 8N106W TO LOW PRES NEAR 12N124W 1009 
MB TO 10N130W. ITCZ 10N130W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 87W-95W AND WITHIN 200 NM 
S OF AXIS FROM 123W-125W.
 
...DISCUSSION... 

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS OVER N PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 
30N118W TO 22N130W. NW SWELL WITH SEAS 8 TO 12 FT W OF LINE 
30N124W TO 14N140W. THIS SWELL IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SE ACROSS 
THE FORECAST AREA AND GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. THE COLD FRONT WILL 
DISSIPATE LATER TODAY ALLOWING HIGH PRES TO BUILD OVER N PORTION 
OF THE AREA. THIS WILL INCREASE THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE 
SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND THE MONSOON TROUGH. TRADEWINDS WILL 
INCREASE TO A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE OVER WATERS FROM 13N-20N W 
OF 133W. 

EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO BY EARLY 
SUN AS THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY TRAVESRSING CHIVELLA PASS MOVES 
ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

$$ 
DGS