000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010914
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC SAT NOV 01 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0715 UTC.                       

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                    
TROPICAL STORM VANCE WAS CENTERED NEAR 9.4N 102.7W OR ABOUT 480 
NM...885 KM S-SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO AT 01/0900 UTC MOVING TOWARD 
THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH 
GUSTS TO 45 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS 
WITHIN 270 NM NE SEMICIRCLE AND 150 NM SW SEMICIRCLE. A CLUSTER 
OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER...AND MORE 
DEFINED CURVED BANDS ARE FORMING NEAR THE OUTER EDGES OF THE 
CIRCULATION. VANCE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AND BECOME 
A HURRICANE BY SUN AFTERNOON. SEE THE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE 0410 UTC ASCAT-A PASS SHOWED 35 KT WINDS IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC WITH WINDS TO 25 KT EXTENDING AS FAR AS 170 NM...315 
KM S-SW FROM THE COAST. BY 0600 UTC...THESE WINDS ARE BELIEVED 
TO HAVE INCREASED TO 40 KT AS A COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH 
CHIVELA PASS. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE AIDED BY 
VERTICAL MIXING OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE PACIFIC ALONG WITH 
DRAINAGE FLOW IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...ALLOWING 40 KT WINDS 
TO PERSIST UNTIL MIDDAY SUN. EXPECT SEAS OF 12-16 FT TO COINCIDE 
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS. THIS GALE FORCE WIND EVENT IS FORECAST 
TO PERSIST UNTIL MIDDAY MONDAY. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 08N78W TO 09N84W TO 
10N95W...THEN CONTINUES FROM 08N108W TO 08N113W TO LOW PRES NEAR 
11N123W 1009 MB TO 09N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS 
OVER WATERS N OF 06N BETWEEN 83W AND 91W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 180 NM NE QUADRANT OF LOW PRES NEAR 
11N123W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS FROM 07N TO 10N 
BETWEEN 124W AND 131W.
 
...DISCUSSION... 

A LOW PRES AREA LIES NEAR 11N123W ABOUT 1000 NM...1850 KM... 
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. 
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS WANED NEAR THIS SYSTEM OVER THE PAST 12 
HOURS. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY FAVORABLE 
FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...BUT 
DRY AIR IN THE VICINITY SHOULD LIMIT SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT AS 
IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE W. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE OF 
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
 
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS OVER N WATERS FROM 30N122W TO 26N126W TO 
22N135W. NW SWELL TO 13 FT CAN BE FOUND OVER THE FAR NW WATERS 
BEHIND THE FRONT AS OBSERVED BY THE 0423 UTC CRYOSAT PASS. THIS 
SWELL IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND 
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. THE COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE TODAY ALLOWING 
HIGH PRES TO BUILD OVER N WATERS. THIS WILL INCREASE THE PRES 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND THE MONSOON TROUGH. 
TRADEWINDS HAVE ALREADY INCREASED TO A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE 
OVER WATERS N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 13N TO 18N W OF 130W. 

EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO BY EARLY 
SUN AS THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY TRAVERSING CHIVELA PASS MOVES 
ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS GAP WIND EVENT IS 
FORECAST TO PRIMARILY IMPACT THE AREA FROM 09N TO 11N W OF 90W 
THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ON MON MORNING.

$$ 
SCHAUER