000 AXPZ20 KNHC 300236 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC THU OCT 30 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0215 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 11N100W. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN AROUND 120 NM NE QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED ELSEWHERE FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 96W-100W. THE SYSTEM STILL LACKS A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION AND THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. LATEST SCATTEROMETER PASSES CAPTURED AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WITHIN 120 NM N SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW CENTER WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO GIVE THIS LOW PRES A HIGH CHANGE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A GALE WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STARTING AT 01/0000 UTC. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO INITIATE A NEW ROUND OF NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH WINDS REACHING GALE FORCE FRI EVENING. EXPECT BUILDING SEAS OF 14-15 FT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS BY EARLY SAT. THIS GALE FORCE WIND EVENT IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH SUN MORNING. THE GFS GLOBAL MODEL AND THE NAM REGIONAL MODEL ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THE GEFS PROBABILITIES REACH 40-50 PERCENT AT 01/0600 UTC. THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE SECOND GALE-FORCE EVENT OF THE COLD SEASON 2014- 2015. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO A 1007 MB LOW PRES LOCATED NEAR 11N100W TO 08N105W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 08N105W TO 12N120W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 120W AND 128W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 09N TO 12N W OF 128W. ...DISCUSSION... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OF 1021 MB CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 31N131W EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS TO NEAR 20N110W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN WATERS FROM 10N TO 20N W OF 120W. SCATTEROMETER DATA CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE WINDS. A COLD FRONT IS JUST NW OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NW WATERS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT REACHING A POSITION FROM 30N132W TO 25N140W BY THU EVENING...AND FROM 30N128W TO 23N140W BY FRI MORNING. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS WILL PREVAIL NW OF THE FRONT ON THU. A NEW SET OF NW SWELL WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT WITH BUILDING SEAS OF 10-11 FT NW OF A LINE FROM 30N130W TO 23N140W LATE ON FRI. LOOKING AHEAD...A GULF OF PAPAGAYO GAP WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED LATE SAT INTO SUN AS A STRONG COLD FRONT FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR MOVES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH A POSITION FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO SOUTHERN NICARAGUA SUN NIGHT WITH FRESH NE WINDS SPREADING ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IN ITS WAKE. $$ GR