000
AXPZ20 KNHC 292128
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC WED OCT 29 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.                       

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                           
A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 11N99W. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS 
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM E 
SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
ALSO NOTED FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 98W AND 104W. THIS SYSTEM 
CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER, IT STILL LACKS 
A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION. THE CENTER IS EXPOUSED AND 
WEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER 
PASSES CAPTURED AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WITHIN 120 NM N 
SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW CENTER WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. THE LATEST NHC 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK GIVES THIS LOW PRES A HIGH CHANGE OF 
DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 
                    
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 10N90W TO 1007 MB LOW 
PRES NEAR 11N99W TO 07N105W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 07N105W TO 
12N123W TO 10N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 120W AND 123W. 
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 11N W 
OF 132W. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS SUPPORTING THIS CONVECTIVE 
ACTIVITY. 
 
...DISCUSSION...                                                
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OF 1022 MB CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE 
FORECAST AREA NEAR 31N131W EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN 
WATERS TO NEAR 20N110W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE 
AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING 
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN WATERS FROM 10N 
TO 20N W OF 125W. SCATTEROMETER DATA CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF 
THESE WINDS. 

A COLD FRONT IS JUST NW OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS FRONT WILL 
MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS EARLY THU. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS 
WILL PREVAIL NW OF THE FRONT ON THU. A NEW SET OF NW SWELL WILL 
FOLLOW THE FRONT WITH BUILDING SEAS TO NEAR 11 FT BY FRI MORNING.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS 
THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL HELP INITIATE A NEW 
ROUND OF NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH WINDS REACHING NEAR GALE FORCE BY EARLY THU. 
WINDS MAY ALSO INCREASE FURTHER AND REACH GALE FORCE LATE 
FRI/EARLY SAT. EXPECT BUILDING SEAS OF 14-15 FT WITH THE 
STRONGEST WINDS BY EARLY SAT. 

LOOKING AHEAD...A GULF OF PAPAGAYO GAP WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED 
LATE SAT INTO SUN AS A STRONG COLD FRONT FOR THIS TIME OF THE 
YEAR MOVES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO 
REACH A POSITION FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO SOUTHERN NICARAGUA SUN 
NIGHT WITH FRESH NE WINDS SPREADING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN IN ITS 
WAKE. 

$$ 
GR