000
AXPZ20 KNHC 291512
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC WED OCT 29 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.                       

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                           
A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 11N98W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 150 NM SE QUADRANT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 150 NM NE 
QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS 
NOTED FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 97W AND 102W. THE LATEST NHC 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK GIVES THIS LOW PRES A HIGH CHANGE OF 
DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 
                    
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 1007 MB LOW PRES NEAR 
11N98W TO 08N104W TO 09N109W WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A 
TRANSITION TO ITCZ WHICH EXTENDS TO 12N120W TO 09N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 
90 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH E OF 90W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 210 NM S OF THE ITCZ 
W OF 120W. 
 
...DISCUSSION...                                                
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OF 1022 MB CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE 
FORECAST AREA NEAR 31N131W EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN 
WATERS TO NEAR 18N110W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE 
AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING 
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN WATERS FROM 10N 
TO 20N W OF 120W.   

A COLD FRONT IS JUST NW OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS FRONT WILL 
MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS EARLY THU. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS 
WILL PREVAIL NW OF THE FRONT ON THU. THE FRONT WILL USHER IN A 
SET OF NW SWELLS TO THE AREA...REACHING NEAR 9 FT BY EARLY FRI.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS 
THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL HELP INITIATE A NEW 
ROUND OF NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH WINDS REACHING NEAR GALE FORCE BY EARLY THU. 
WINDS MAY ALSO INCREASE FURTHER AND REACH GALE FORCE LATE 
FRI/EARLY SAT.  

$$ 
AL