000
AXPZ20 KNHC 290908
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC WED OCT 29 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.                       

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                           
A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 11N98W MOVING W-NW AT 5 KT. 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRES 
CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE AND ARE PRIMARILY CONCENTRATED WITHIN 150 
NM OF CENTER WITHIN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. A RECENT ASCAT 
SATELLITE PASS CAPTURED THE CIRCULATION WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS 
OF 20 TO 25 KT OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM IN THE NE QUADRANT...AND 
WITHIN 180 NM TO 210 NM IN THE SE QUADRANT ON THE SOUTHERN 
EXTENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS. ALOFT...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE 
IS CENTERED NE OF THE SURFACE LOW NEAR 14N91W. THIS RIDGING IS 
INDUCING WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ALOFT AND LOW VERTICAL SHEAR. 
GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM AS A 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH MOST OF THE SPIN UP OCCURRING ONCE THE 
CENTER CROSSES 100W ON THURSDAY OR THEREAFTER. THE LATEST NHC 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK GIVES THIS LOW PRES A HIGH CHANGE OF 
DEVELOPING INTO A TROP1CAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 
                    
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 10N86W TO 1007 MB 
LOW PRES NEAR 11N98W TO 09N106W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 
09N106W TO 1009 MB LOW PRES NEAR 11N119W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN 124W AND 137W.
 
...DISCUSSION...                                                
A 1022 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA 
NEAR 32N131W EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS TO NEAR 
18N112W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER 
PRESSURE ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS IS RESULTING IN MODERATE TO FRESH 
TRADE WINDS MAINLY FROM 10N TO 20N W OF 123W. RECENT SATELLITE 
SCATTEROMETER DATA CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE WINDS.  

LOOKING AHEAD...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FAR NW CORNER OF 
THE DISCUSSION AREA LATE WED INTO EARLY THURSDAY REACHING A 
POSITION FROM 30N133W TO 26N140W BY THURSDAY EVENING. MODERATE 
TO FRESH WITH LOCALLY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW IN WAKE 
OF THE FRONT. EXPECT SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT IN NW SWELL BY EARLY 
FRIDAY WHEN THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM 30N130W TO 
25N140W.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NE WINDS ARE 
PULSING ACROSS THIS GULF REGION THIS MORNING WITH THE ASSISTANCE 
OF THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE 
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH FRIDAY AND INITIATE A NEW 
ROUND OF NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS AND INTO THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY EARLY THURSDAY. GLOBAL MODELS CURRENTLY 
ARE SIGNALING FOR EITHER NEAR GALE OR GALE CONDITIONS DURING THE 
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SAT AND THEN ON SUN WITH 
BUILDING SEAS TO 12-14 FT DURING THE PERIOD OF THE STRONGEST 
WINDS. THE EVENT SHOULD FADE BY LATE MONDAY.

$$ 
HUFFMAN