000 AXPZ20 KNHC 290232 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC WED OCT 29 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0215 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 11N97.5W MOVING W-NW AT 5 KT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AREA OF LOW PRES ARE NOT WELL ORGANIZED AND IT IS NOT CLEAR YET THAT THE LOW HAS DEVELOPED A WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER COVERING THE AREA FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 94.5W AND 97W. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS EMBEDDED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH CURRENTLY IN AN AREA OF HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS JUST NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE LOW...INDUCING WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ALOFT AND LOW VERTICAL SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH MOST OF THE SPIN UP OCCURRING AFTER A DAY OR TWO. THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK GIVES THIS LOW PRES A HIGH CHANGE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROP1CAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS AXIS FROM 09N84W TO 1007 MB LOW PRES NEAR 11N97.5W TO 08N106W. ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM 08N106W TO 1009 MB LOW PRES NEAR 10.5N118W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 128W AND 135W. ...DISCUSSION... A MODERATE 1022 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 32N132W EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE N WATERS TO NEAR 20N110W. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRES ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS IS RESULTING IN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS MAINLY FROM 10N-20N W OF 128W. LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE WINDS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WED NIGHT REACHING A POSITION FROM 30N132W TO 25N140W BY THU EVENING. MODERATE TO FRESH NLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT. EXPECT BUILDING SEAS OF 8-10 FT IN NW SWELL BY FRI MORNING WHEN THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM 30N128W TO 24N140W. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO AFFECT MOST OF THE WATERS W OF 110W WITH SEAS OF 8-9 FT FROM 10N TO 17N W OF 118W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N BETWEEN 115W AND 125W. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...MODERATE TO FRESH NLY WINDS ARE PULSING ACROSS THIS GULF DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. A COLD FRONT ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE IN THE WEEK SHOULD KICK OFF A NEW AND VIGOROUS TEHUANTEPECER ON FRIDAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS CURRENTLY ARE CALLING FOR EITHER NEAR GALE OR GALE CONDITIONS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SAT AND THEN ON SUN WITH BUILDING SEAS TO 13-14 FT DURING THE PERIOD OF THE STRONGEST WINDS. THE EVENT SHOULD FADE BY LATE MONDAY. $$ GR