000
AXPZ20 KNHC 282142
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC TUE OCT 28 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.                       

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                           
A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 11N96W AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY A 
BAND OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 
120 NM SE SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW CENTER. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS 
EMBEDDED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH CURRENTLY IN AN AREA OF HIGH 
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS JUST 
NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE LOW...INDUCING WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS 
ALOFT AND LOW VERTICAL SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH MOST OF THE 
SPIN UP OCCURRING AFTER A DAY OR TWO. RECENT SATELLITE DATA 
INDICATE THE LOW DOES NOT HAVE A WELL-DEFINED CENTER AND IS NOT 
A TROPICAL CYCLONE YET. THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 
GIVES THIS LOW PRES A HIGH CHANGE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROP1CAL 
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD 
BE SLOWLY OFF TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF 
DAYS...REMAINING OFFSHORE FOR THE SHORT-TERM. 
                    
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 1007 MB LOW PRES NEAR 
11N96W TO 08N105W. ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM 08N105W TO 1011 MB 
LOW PRES NEAR 10N117W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 09N BETWEEN 115W AND 119W...AND 
FROM 06N TO 10N W OF 126W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED FROM 
10N TO 12N BETWEEN 131W AND 134W. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS 
HELPING TO INDUCE ALL THE CONVECTION W OF 126W.
 
...DISCUSSION...                                                
A MODERATE 1022 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE 
FORECAST AREA NEAR 32N131W EXTENDING A RIDGE ACROSS THE N WATERS 
TO NEAR 18N110W. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE NOTED PER 
SCATTEROMETER DATA ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE 
MAINLY W OF 130W. 

A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA 
LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING...AND WILL REACH A POSITION FROM 
30N132W TO 26N140W BY THU EVENING. MODERATE TO FRESH NLY WINDS 
WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT. EXPECT BUILDING SEAS OF 8-11 FT IN NW 
SWELL BY FRI MORNING WHEN THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM 
30N128W TO 25N140W.
 
LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO AFFECT MOST OF THE WATERS W OF 
110W WITH SEAS OF 8-9 FT FROM 10N TO 18N W OF 115W. SEAS WILL 
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A COLD FRONT ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS 
THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE IN THE WEEK SHOULD KICK OFF A NEW AND 
VIGOROUS TEHUANTEPECER ON FRIDAY. WHILE THE BUILDING HIGH 
PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO MAY CAUSE SOME 
SPORADIC WEAK GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON 
THURSDAY...A STRONGER AND MORE CONTINUOUS EVENT IS EXPECTED 
BEGINNING ON LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS 
CURRENTLY ARE CALLING FOR EITHER NEAR GALE OR GALE CONDITIONS AT 
ITS PEAK. THE EVENT SHOULD FADE BY MONDAY. 

$$ 
GR